Gold was up today, as we suspected it should be. The multi-day correction that we have been going through might finally have ended. A clean break above 1223.30, would confirm those thoughts.

We have been having trouble getting access to good intraday gold charts, so we have not be able to provide a detailed count of gold since the 1167.30 low was made. We should be back in full operation next Monday to provide a more detailed EWave count.

We will be adding 2 long positons at 1239.10, and at that time will be also raising our stops to the 1167 level..

We remain long all previous positions, with stops at 1141.70.



Crude was down in the today's day session, and as we suspected wave iii does not appear over at the 46.85 low. In spite of this fact, we are still of the opinion that the end of wave iii is not that far away.  The end of wave iii should be marked by a very large...one day rally of say $5, with heavy volume to announce the being of a multi-month wave iv corrective rally.



See the updated 10 min S&P chart that st will post/send later...


Just as we suspected, it looks like wave (ii) ended at 2064.43. Our ending diagonal triangle did not fail us again, as we added to our short positions on a break to the downside out of that triangle. Since we believe that wave (i) and (ii) are now complete we did via an intraday post provide some projections for the end of wave (iii). Our preferred number is the (iii)=1.618(i) projection which is 1900.83. We also lowered our stops to just above the wave (ii) high at 2064.50.

Within wave (iii), we also announced via an intraday post that likely wave .i. of -i- of (iii) ended at 2038.33 and we are now working on the wave .ii. retracement. We provided a retracement range of between 2051.38 and 2054.46. As the 10 min S&P chart shows it looks like wave *a* and *b* of .ii. are complete, with wave *c* likely to end on Monday. After wave .ii. ends we should be heading sharply lower in wave .iii. of -i-.



After trying to make a new high above 92.53, this market has turned down, after hitting 92.50, in what looks to be an impulsive sequence from 92.50 to 91.90. For the time being we are going to give this market a little more time to confirm to us that the wave ii of C rally is finally over.




We were up today marginally, but not enough to change our thinking. We repeat: "Only a break of the down trend line connecting 4.53 and 3.94, would finally suggest that wave ii is complete at 2.81."

We are still long 4 positions, risking to 2.81.



See the updated 60 min GDX chart.

Wave ^iv^ ended at 19.61, and we should now be moving higher in wave ^v^. Our minimum target for wave ^v^ is the wave ^iii^ high of 20.69. At the time that this post is written, the GDX had not traded to our minimum target of 20.69. We suspect that wave ^v^ will likely take most of next week to complete. The end of wave ^v^ will also complete wave *iii*.

We do note that the retracement level of wave ^iv^ was rather deep (ie: between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave ^iii^), which could suggest to us that wave ^iii^ did not end at 20.69 and that it is subdividing again. This would not surprise us as we believe this multi-year wave C rally is going to be very explosive to the upside. For now we are keeping this option as our alternate and our preferred is what is shown on the updated 60 min GDX chart.


We have modified the count below to match the graphical count shown on our 60 min GDX chart. St will send that chart to you shortly.

(i) = 18.91;

(ii) = 17.16;


-i- = 18.48;

-ii- = 18.76


.i. = 18.71;


*a* = 18.05:

*b* = 18.60;

*c* = 17.95, to complete all
of wave *ii*:


*i* = 18.80;

*ii* = 18.40. Note that 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement is 18.38:


^i^ = 19.26;

^ii^ = 18.76;

^iii^ = 20.69:

^iv^ = 19.61:

^v^ rally to go to at least the wave ^iii^ high of 20.69.

St comments: Surf The Golden Ewave, into the heart of the gold bull era!