jan 9 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Editor Comments:

 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920gold.png Short Term Update: 

 

Gold had a key daily reversal lower in yesterday’s day session, and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session, as we have reached a low of 1541.20.            

 

We are now rallying in wave *v*, and we have updated that internal wave structure on the Daily Gold Chart, to indicate that likely all of wave $iii$ ended at the spike high of 1613.30 and that we are now falling in wave $iv$.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave $iv$ are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1574.80;

38.2.{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1550.80.

 

In the overnight session we have exceeded our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, which could be suggesting that wave $iv$ could be developing into a bullish triangle.

 

Our silver and gold counts do not line up, so our alternate count for gold would be that all of wave $i$ of *v* ended at the 1613.30 spike high and that we are falling in wave $ii$, which would have the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1529.80;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1510.00.

 

One current projection for the end of wave *v* and wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920gold.png   

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower yesterday’s day session, and that trend has continued early in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 17.82.    

                                                                                                                                              

We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, and have now completed wave $i$ of ^iii^ at the 18.89 high. We are now falling in wave $ii$ that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.73;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.46.

 

Once wave $iii$ ends we expect another very shar rally in wave $iii$ of ^iii^.  

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920oil.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude had a very large key daily reversal lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 59.16. In the overnight session we have traded sideways to currently be trading at the 59.65 level.

 

Our wave (b) of b bearish triangle is now extending, as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Wave $c$ of *c* is now complete at the 65.65 high and we are now falling in wave *d*. Wave *d* should move down to our lower red trendline that marks the boundaries of our bearish wave (b) triangle.

 

Based on the current position of this trendline wave *d* should reach the 52.00/53.00 level before it ends.

 

Wave *d* cannot trade below the wave *b* low of 50.52 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

We added to our short positions yesterday and plan to take profits on all of our short positions at the 52.00/53.00 level.   

 

Suncor: Wave (ii) is complete likely complete at the 34.11 high. If that is the case we should now be starting to fall sharply in wave (iii). We shorted Suncor yesterday and plan to capture the wave (iii) drop.

 

Trading Recommendation: More short with calls as a stop.

 

Active Positions: More short crude with a call as a stop. Short Suncor risking to $36.00.                                

  

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920bond.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.876{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

It is now looking like wave (iv) is still underway and becoming more complex. On the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart we have shown a possible internal wave count for wave (iv) which includes a bullish triangle that likely ended at the 1.766{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave *c* which has minimum target of at least the 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high to complete all of wave (iv).

 

For our current wave *b* triangle to remain valid we cannot drop below the 1.693{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level. Otherwise this triangle is likely expanding and extending.  

 

Once wave (iv) ends we suspect that wave (v) has a minimum target of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but we suspect a drop to 1.000{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} should be expected.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920spd.png 120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session, reaching another all-time new high at 3267.07. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 10 points.

 

On the 120 Min SP500 Chart we have shown that we are now rallying in wave $v$ of -c-, if our bearish count alternate count is correct.

 

An ending diagonal triangle formation is now apparent on the Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts.

 

While it seems impossible, a top could be getting very close!  The same thing happened, in a small way, with our counts on gold recently suggesting a high at 1570 or a bit over 1600!

 

The SP500 continues to reach all time new highs, but we are still thinking that the bearish counts case is also possible. On our Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts we have shown our alternate bearish count that is suggesting the wave -b- has become a double 3 corrective wave pattern.

 

For now, our current bullish is still preferred. Our subdividing wave (iii) that has initial projection of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short at 2950.0, with a call as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short at 2950.00, with a call as stop! 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached high of 97.21.

 

On the Intraday Chart we have a 3 wave rally in place from 96.02 to the current high of 97.21, which is a bearish sign.

 

We are waiting for sharp break below our lower red trend line connecting 95.17 and 95.36.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for wave ^ii^, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of sharp wave ^iii^ lower. Our retracement levels for all wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.11;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.40.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at 99.33. Once wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp wave (iii) drop will be the next big event in this market.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 100.00.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00! 

 

CDNX: 

 

120 Min CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920cdnx.png  

Daily CDNX Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920cdnxd.png  

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session, reaching a low of 576.91.

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave .iv. of -v- is still underway and has become flat type corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily and 120 Min CDNX Charts.

 

We should be heading back to the wave -a- high of 641.50 to complete wave -c- of .iv. Once wave .iv. ends we expect one final drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v- and B.

 

Longer term our ultimate target for the end of this wave -v- and B is the 487.01 low, which will mark the completion of wave B and the start of a massive wave C rally, as shown on the Weekly CNDX Chart.  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan920gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a low of 28.12.

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (v), but we have updated the initial wave structure as shown now on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

WE are now suggesting that all of wave $iii$ of -i- ended at the 29.87 high and that we are now falling in wave $iv$.

 

Once wave $iv$ ends we expect another rally in wave $v$ to complete all of wave -i-. We expect wave -i- to reach the 30.95 level.  

 

Also, with our current gold count it could be possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!!

 

These have been updated as of December 30th:

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, with a short term target of 5.82.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave (iii) rally, which has an initial projection of 37.10, with a short term target of 22.71.

 

HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:

 

iii = 1.618i = 225.92;

iii = 2.618i = 275.05.

 

In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.

 

XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.

 

In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew