july 1 morning post!

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul121cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 961.11, closing at 960.69!

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$. Our current short term challenge is to clear resistance at the 1000 level. We are very close to declaring that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 902.30 low.

 

If we assume that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 902.30 low then it could be possible that wave $iii$ is subdividing as shown on our Daily CDNX Chart, with wave *i* ending at 981.88 and all or most of wave *ii* at the 935.10 low. If that is the case then we should start moving higher in wave *iii* of $iii$.

 

We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1221gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul121gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 34.21, closing at 33.98!

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We have now exceeded our 61.8% retracement zone so we are now watching our 78.6% retracement level. We still need to be on guard for the completion of all of wave ^ii^ and the start of a sharp rally in wave ^iii^, as the GDX is now oversold.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Chart.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul121gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1780.20!

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (i) of ^iii^ is complete at the 1919.20 high and that we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1725.90.

 

We have now exceeded our 61.8% retracement level so our last retracement level is 78.6%. We still need to be on guard for the completion of all of wave (ii), and start of a sharp wave (iii) rally.

 

We broke lower out of our bearish triangle formation that started at the 1797.50 as we have been suggesting for the last couple of days.

 

A rally now above 1786.00 now would likely confirm that the current correction is complete at the 1750.10 low.

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.                                           

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul121si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 26.44!

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

We are now working on the assumption that within wave -iii, wave *i* ended at the 28.90 high and that we are now falling in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 26.35

61.8% = 25.74.

 

Sliver has reached its 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii*, and the start of a sharp rally in wave *iii*.

 

We did break lower out of our bearish triangle formation as we have been suggesting we might over the last couple of days. We did reach our minimum objective of 25.58, and have also traded above the 26.29 high which is suggesting that all of wave *ii* is likely now complete at the 25.58 low.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* in the next day or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul121bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.438%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.483%.

 

All of wave *iii* of (i) ended at the 1.765% high. We still appear to be working on a complex wave *iv* correction, which could now be complete at the 1.438% level. After wave *iv* ends we expect a wave *v* rally to be the next big event in this market.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul121spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul121sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 4302.43. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 1 point.

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

As shown on our 120 Min SP500 Chart it looks like wave (iv) has become a flat correction with wave -a- ending at 4056.88 and all or most of wave -b- at 4286.12. If that is the case then we are now falling in wave -c-. Wave (iv) could still become much more complex also.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short with calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul121usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 92.56!

 

It look likes within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at the 89.52 low and we are now rallying in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement level:

 

78.6% = 92.60

 

We have now exceeded our 61.8% retracement level, so we could be heading to our 78.6% retracement level before all of wave *ii* ends. The other option is that wave -iv- maybe still be underway as a flat correction or possibility a bearish triangle. For the bearish triangle to remain valid we cannot trade above the 93.47 level.

 

We have also introduced a possible very bearish alternate that is shown on the Daily USDX Chart. This count is suggesting that we are still working on a very large wave *iv* of -iii- bearish triangle, which could be getting very close to completion. After wave *iv* ends we expect a sharp drop lower in wave *v* which has a projected endpoint of :

 

-iii- = 2.168-i- = 86.26

 

For now we will stay with our current analysis as the preferred. Nevertheless we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii*, and the start of a sharp drop lower in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave *iii*, after wave *ii* ends.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.                         

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul121oil.png                                                                                                                       

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 75.44!

 

It is now looks like our initial five wave impulsive rally out of the 6.50 wave B low is still underway as shown in our updated count on our Daily Crude Chart. We appear to be working on wave (v), and within wave (v) we are working on wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 74.55.

 

We have now reached our wave $iii$ projected endpoint so we need to be guard for its completion and the start of our wave $iv$ of (v) correction. Wave $iii$ may also be extending to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 82.58

 

Wave $iv$ should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave $iii$ rally.  

 

After all of wave (v) ends we would have completed all of wave i of C. We will slightly update our Long Term Count in this week’s End of Week Post.

                                                                                                                   

Suncor: We have updated our current count to suggest that we are getting very close to completing wave (i) of iii. Within wave (i), we likely completed all of wave -iii- at the 25.73 high and all of wave -iv- at the 22.32 low. If that is the case we are now moving higher in wave -v-.

 

After wave (i) ends we expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

We have updated our projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew