july 15 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 933.81, closing at 937.82.

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$. Our current short term challenge is to clear resistance at the 1000 level.

 

If we assume that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 902.30 low then it could be possible that wave $iii$ is subdividing as shown on our Daily CDNX Chart, with wave *i* ending at 982.22.

 

It now looks like wave *ii* is complete at the 922.30 low. After wave *ii* ends we expect to start moving higher again in wave *iii* of $iii$.

 

We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 35.16, closing at 34.74!

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We are now watching our 78.6% retracement level. We still need to be on guard for the completion of all of wave ^ii^ and the start of a sharp rally in wave ^iii^, although one more a drop back to the 33.30 level looks likely now.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Chart and also on the 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

We tried to break above the NL on the smaller head and shoulder bottom yesterday, but failed, so perhaps today or very soon we will be successful which would be a good sign for the bulls.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1834.60!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 1750.10 low and if that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave (iii). Our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2148.00.

 

Expect higher prices with next resistance at the 1856.00 level.   

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 26.34 level!

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

We are now working on the assumption that within wave -iii, wave *i* ended at the 28.90 high and that we are now falling in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 26.35

61.8% = 25.74.

 

Sliver has reached its 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii*, and the start of a sharp rally in wave *iii*.

 

It is starting to look like all of wave *ii* is complete at the 25.58 low, with next resistance at the 26.55/26.58 level.  We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* in the next day or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521bond.png  

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.311%!

 

All of wave *iii* of (i) ended at the 1.765% high. We still appear to be working on a complex wave *iv* correction, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 1.491%

38.2% = 1.322%

 

We have now reached our 38.2% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of all of wave *iv* and the start of our wave *v* rally. Wave *iv* may be complete at the 1.268% low.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time high of 4393.68.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 14 points.

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 92.27.

 

After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 92.57.

 

It look likes within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at the 89.52 low and we are now rallying in wave *ii*, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 92.62

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level, so we need to be our guard for the completion of wave *ii*, and that start of our wave *iii* drop. We also appear to have and ending diagonal triangle formation shown on the Daily USDX Chart, which NOW LOOKS TO BE COMPLETE AT THE 92.84 HIGH.

 

A break below 92.14 should send this market sharply lower!

 

The other option is that wave -iv- maybe still be underway as a flat correction or possibility a bearish triangle. For the bearish triangle to remain valid we cannot trade above the 93.47 level.

 

We have also introduced a possible very bearish alternate that is shown on the Daily USDX Chart. This count is suggesting that we are still working on a very large wave *iv* of -iii- bearish triangle, which could be getting very close to completion.

 

After wave *iv* ends we expect a sharp drop lower in wave *v* which has a projected endpoint of :

 

-iii- = 2.168-i- = 86.26

 

It looks like at least all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 92.84 level and if that is the case then we are starting to fall in wave *iii*.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* in the next day or so.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.   

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.50.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521oil.png                                                                                                                       

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 71.61!

 

Our initial five wave impulsive rally out of the 6.50 wave B low is still underway as shown in our Daily Crude Chart. We appear to be working on wave (v), and within wave (v) we are working on wave $iii$, which looks to now be complete at the 76.98 high.

 

The wave $iii$ high was marked by a large key daily reversal lower last week.

 

We are now dropping in wave $iv$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 73.34;

38.2% = 71.09.

 

We have reached our 38.2% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and the start of another rally in wave $v$, although the time it took to reach 70.76 was pretty quick, which could be suggesting that wave $iv$ may still be underway and become a bullish triangle formation.   

 

After all of wave (v) ends we would have completed all of wave i of C.

                                                                                                                   

Suncor: We have updated our current count to suggest that we are getting very close to completing wave (i) of iii. Within wave (i), we likely completed all of wave -iii- at the 25.73 high and all of wave -iv- at the 22.00 low. If that is the case we are now moving higher in wave -v-.

 

After wave (i) ends we expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

We have updated our projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew