JULY 18 WEEKLY CHARTS POST

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold this past week reached a high of 1835.00, closing marginally higher at 1815.00.

                                                                          

Wave (ii) may now be complete at the 1750.10 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to be rallying out of the 1750.10 low in an impulsive fashion which does not appear to be complete at the 1835.00 high, so we should see higher prices earlier next week.       

 

Next major resistance is back at the 1919.00 high.

 

We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii) likely next week.

 

The USDX is likely breaking lower now in an ending diagonal triangle formation which is bullish for gold and silver.                                          

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 2687.80.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We suspect that wave *iii* will likely extend since wave ^iii^ of *iii* is now projected to be higher than the current complete wave *iii* projection.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.  

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 25.64, closing at 25.80.

                                                                  

We updated the internal wave count for all of wave i to now suggest that the sideways trading over the last the year is a bullish triangle that is almost complete as shown on the Weekly Silver Chart.

 

Unfortunately, it looks like we need one more drop below the 25.58 low to complete the minimum requirements for this pattern to become complete, unless it extends and expands.

 

This bullish triangle is wave (iv) and within wave (iv) we are now working on wave -e-. more details within wave -e- has been shown on our Daily Silver Chart. After wave (iv) ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has projected a length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.420%, but by the end of the week we had closed significantly off that high at 1.300%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence. Within that impulsive sequence we are rallying in wave (iii) which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618 (i) =1.910%.

 

We expect to move higher as we head toward the 1.910% level. Within wave (iii) we completed wave *iii* at 1.765% and are still working on our wave *iv* correction. After wave *iv* ends we expect a wave *v* rally to complete all of wave (iii). After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 70.16, closing at 71.56!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we completed all of wave (iii) of i at 67.98, and all of wave (iv) as a bullish triangle at 58.73.

 

We are now rallying in wave (v) of i, which still appears incomplete!

 

A continuation of this rally to at least the 76.90 level appears likely. After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

Within wave (v), we may NOW have completed all of wave $iv$ at the 70.16 low, although wave $iv$ could still become more complex and even a bullish triangle formation.

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower past week reaching a low of 20.86, closing at 20.98!

 

We continue to rally higher in wave iii. Our have updated our projection for the end of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -iii- ended at the 25.73 and wave -iv- at 20.86. We should start rallying in wave -v- of (i) very soon. After wave (i) ends we expect a drop in wave (ii) which should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                               

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4393.68, although we closed lower at 4327.16!

 

It still appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul18218usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 92.83, closing at 92.69!

 

It looks like within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at 89.52, and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave *ii*.

 

We are watching an ending diagonal triangle formation on the Daily USDX Chart, that may now be complete at the 92.84 high, although on the Intraday Chart it looks like we might make one more new high above 92.84, before this ending diagonal triangle formation actually ends.

 

A break now below the 92.00 will confirm that it is complete at the 92.84 high. Then, we should expect the USDX to start to drop in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave *iii* next week.

 

We are still watching the very bearish triangle formation alternate count as shown on our Daily USDX Chart, which remains valid and if this is the path that the USDX is following then the USDX is heading sharply lower, which would support much higher gold and silver prices.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 906.78, closing at 908.31.

 

It is starting to appear that all of wave $ii$ is NOT complete at the 902.36 low. If that is the case then we will likely revisit this low again early next week before all of wave $ii$ actually ends.

 

After that wave $iii$ ends we should start to rally higher again in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave $iii$ when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

Wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 35.16, although we closed lower at 33.92.

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and all or most of wave ^ii^ should now be complete at the 33.30 low.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ likely next week as we expect that our wave ^iii^ rally is still just getting started.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                              

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and… we have added to our long positions!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching a low of 31046, closing at 31672.

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 of B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which could now be complete at the 28908 low, although on the Daily Bitcoin Chart we are watching a continuation of a bearish triangle formation as it may still be developing.

 

After wave (a) ends we expect a wave (b) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. After wave (b) ends we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of the wave (b) rally, after we believe that all of wave (a) is complete.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew