july 23 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 913.58, closing at 909.96!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64. We had thought all of wave -ii ended at the 867.26 low, but that does not appear to be the case as wave -ii- has become much more complex with a bearish triangle formation embedded within.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53

61.8% = 836.63

 

We are currently dropping in wave (c) of -ii- which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 867.26, which still have not reached. We will give this market another day before we confirm that all of wave (c ) and -ii- are complete at the current low of 868.40.

 

A rally now above the 918.87 low would confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 868.40 low.

 

We believe that most of wave -ii- is almost complete and once it ends we expect a sharp wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in yesterday’s trading session, although we closed lower at 33.41.

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We are now watching our 78.6% retracement level, which we almost reached in this Monday’s trading session. If our current analysis is correct then we should start to see the GDX rally higher in wave ^iii^ pretty soon.

 

Wave ^ii^ has become a double wave correction.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Daily Chart.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321gold.png

  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued for most of the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1810.60.

 

After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1790.10.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 1750.10 low and if that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave (iii). Our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2148.00.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to now have completed a small impulsive sequence from 1750.10 to 1835.00, which was have labelled as wave -i-. We are now correcting in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1792.40;

61.8% = 1782.40.

 

We have now reached our 50% retracement level for all of wave -ii-, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of a wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 25.54.

 

After that high was made, we moved lower reaching a low of 25.10.

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is getting close to completion. Within wave (iv) we are working on wave -e-, which may be complete at the 24.79 low.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a very large thrust higher in wave (v). Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

Only a break of the 23.79 low would suggest that this triangle formation is going to extend and expand.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.233%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching ahigh of 1.301%.

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We have now entered our upper retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a rally in wave *iii*. After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321spd.png  

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4369.87. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 19 points!

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are not sure whether all of wave (iii) is now complete at the 4383.68 high, so we will give this market another day before we conclude that. If all of wave (iii) is now complete then we should expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 92.50. After that low was made we moved higher and that that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 93.04!

 

Although it might be premature we think that all of our ending diagonal triangle formation ended at the 93.20 high. Only a break a break on 92.27 would confirm this to be true.

 

To support our upcoming expected sharp rallies in gold, silver and GDX, we have decided to adopt our alternate count that is suggesting that we are still falling in wave -iii-, and that we just completed a large and lengthy wave *iv* bearish triangle at the 93.20 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave *v*.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Should the USDX continue to rally higher to the 93.47 we suspect our wave *iv* bearish triangle will still be in play, although it will be simply be expanding and extending.    

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.50.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached high of 72.11!

 

We have updated our count to suggest that we are still moving higher in wave i of C, and with wave i, we now think that all of wave (iii) ended at 67.98, and we are now working on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within wave (iv) we think that we completed wave (c) at the 65.01 low and that we are now rallying in wave (d). Only a break above the wave (b) high of 76.98 would eliminate this current bullish triangle.

 

After wave (d) ends we expect a drop in wave (e) to complete all of the wave (iv) bullish triangle.    

                                                                                                               

Suncor: We will need to take a closer look at our current short term count coming out of the 10.67 wave ii low, although we are thinking that perhaps wave (i) of iii ended at 25.73 and all of wave (ii) at 19.56. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally in wave (iii).

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew