JULY 25 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul25gold1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of 1789.10, closing at 1801.80.

                                                                          

We made revisions to our current long term gold count, as shown on our Weekly Gold Chart….

 

And will have the monthly chart updated this week!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave (3) of 3, but now believe that we are still rallying in wave iii of (3), and within wave iii, we think that we likely completed a large bullish triangle at the recent low.

 

If that is the case then we are in the initial stages of a very large thrust higher in wave (v) of iii. Our next [projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 2535.10.

 

Of course triangles can always expand and extend, but for now we will assume that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 1750.10 low.

 

We will update our Daily Gold Chart to reflect this new wave (iv) bullish triangle for Monday’s post.

 

Gold may have completed its current correction at 1790.10 low, and if that is the case we should now start moving higher.                                  

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!              

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421si1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 24.79, closing at 25.23. 

                                                                  

We are now working on the assumption that we are still working on wave i of 3, and within wave i we have moving sideways over the last the year in a bullish wave (iv) triangle that is almost complete as shown on the Weekly Silver Chart.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for its completion at the 24.79 low. Of course this triangle could also expand and extend, which would only occur if we continued to drop back to the 23.74 low.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has projected a length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1.128%, closing at 1.286%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s. This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. WE are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% -= 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially sharply lower again this past week reaching a low of 65.01, but we recovered all of those losses to close higher at 72.07!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we completed all of wave (iii) of i at 67.98, and we now believe we are working on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle we completed wave $c$ at 65.01 and are now rallying in wave $d$. After wave $d$ ends we expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of wave (iv).

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i.

 

The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul25su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially lower past week reaching a low of 19.56, closing at 20.81!

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave iii is subdividing and within that wave we likely completed all of wave (i0 at the 25.73 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for this correction is 19.56, which is still short of our 50 % retracement level I suggesting that perhaps all of wave (ii) is still not complete the 19.56 low.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 4233.18, but by the end of the week we had recovered all of those losses to have reached another all-time high of 4415.18, closing at 4411.79!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421usd.png

 

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 93.19, closing at 92.93!

 

We have now adopted our bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle option as our preferred count. This is shown on our Daily USDX Chart.

 

A break of the 93.47 high would only suggest that this triangle option is expanding and extending.

 

On the Intraday Chart we are also watching a ending diagonal triangle formation within wave $e$ of *iv* which may be complete at the 93.20 high. If it is then we should star to move lower in wave *v* of -iii- now.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 868.48, closing at 902.56.

 

It appears that wave -iii- is still underway, although we so far have not reached our minimum target for wave (c) of -iii-, which is the wave (a) low of 867.26.

 

A trade now above 918.97 low, would confirm to us that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 868.40 low, that we have finally stated to rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of eave -iii-, when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, and key juniors, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 32.87, closing at 33.15!

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and all or most of wave ^ii^ should now be complete at the 32.87 low. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ when e believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 29320, although we closed higher at 33965!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 of B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which could now be complete at the 28908 low, although on the Daily Bitcoin Chart we are watching a continuation of a bearish triangle formation as it may still be developing.

 

After wave (a) ends we expect a wave (b) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. After wave (b) ends we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of the wave (b) rally, after we believe that all of wave (a) is complete.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew