jun 18 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 939.49, closing at 948.10.

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$. Our current short term challenge is to clear resistance at the 1000 level. We are very close to declaring that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 902.30 low.

 

If we assume that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 902.30 low then it could be possible that wave $iii$ is subdividing as shown on our Daily CDNX Chart, with wave *i* ending at 981.88 and all or most of wave *ii* at the 939.49 low. If that is the case then we should start moving higher in wave *iii* of $iii$.

 

We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower again in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 34.79, closing at 34.93!

 

Based on our previous count we had thought wave ^i^ of *iii* was still underway and that we had a few more tiny subdivisions higher before the arrival of our wave ^ii^ correction.

 

As you can see in our 60 Min GDX Chart, wave -v- of ^i^ ended as a failure high at 39.88.

 

Our target was just a tiny bit above there, at 40.17.

 

Anyhow, we are now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 35.26;

61.8% = 34.22.

 

The good news for the GDX bulls is that we have already reached our wave ^ii^ retracement levels so we need to be guard for its completion and the start of a sharp rally in wave ^iii^. 

 

                   Heads up, Ewave Surfers!

 

We will be adding to our long GDX position today!   

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. WE are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices. Add to GDX today!

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! Adding to GDX today!

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1767.90.

 

After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1797.50.

 

Like the GDX we also thought that gold a few more subdivisions to the upside before all of wave (i) would come to a completion at which time we would have expected the sharp wave (ii) drop.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave (ii) are:

 

50% = 1794.20;

61.8% = 1765.90.

 

The good news is that we have already reached our retracement levels for all of wave (ii), so we need to be guard for its completion and the start of a major rally in wave (iii), which could be complete at the 1767.90 low.

 

Note the head and shoulders bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.  Like the Fib retracements, that’s not part of Ewave, but it is what editor ST calls a gold market ‘green shoot’.                                            

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Another heads up: We are adding to our gold longs today!

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add to longs today. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

Adding to longs today!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 25.82.

 

After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 26.55.

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we had been saying that the internal wave structure of wave *i* was a bit murky, but no longer so, as we can now conclude that all of wave *i* ended at the 28.90 high.

 

We are now falling in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 26.35

61.8% = 25.74.

 

Like the GDX and gold the good news for the silver bulls is that we already entered our retracement zone for all of wave *ii*, so we need to be guard for its completion, possibility at the 25.82 low. After wave *ii* ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave *iii*.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1.472%.

 

After that low was made we moved higher currently trading at the 1.518% level!

 

We have updated our current count to suggest that all of wave *iii* of (i) ended at the 1.765% high. We still appear to be working on a complex wave *iv* correction, which could now be complete at the 1.459% level. After wave *iv* ends we expect a wave *v* rally to be the next big event in this market.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching low of 4196.05. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are sharply lower by about 33 points!

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

It is still to early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to develop into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short with calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 92.20!

 

It look likes within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at the 89.52 low and we are now rallying in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 91.50

61.8%= 91.96

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii*, and the start of a sharp drop lower in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave *iii*, after wave *ii* ends.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ewjun1821oil.png

                                                                                                                      

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 69.77. In the overnight session we moved sideways currently trading at the 70.33 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew