MAR 14 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1421gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1673.90 but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 1738.00, and closing higher at 1719.80!

                                                                          

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1673.390 low and if that is the case then we should now be starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Our next challenge will be a break and close above our red horizontal resistance at around 1770.00/1790.00 and then a further break above our red downtrend line that are shown on the Weekly Gold Chart.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of wave ^iii^ when we are sure that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.  

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1421si.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this this past week reaching a high of 26.55, closing at 25.91.  

                                                                  

We are not sure now that wave ii of 3 is still underway but if it is our retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Our current count is are still suggesting that we are falling in wave c which has a minimum target of the wave a low of 21.81, but likely lower…somewhere within our above mentioned retracement zone.

 

However, based on what silver is doing compared to gold we are not so sure that silver is going to fall all the way back to the 21.00 level.

 

It could be possible that all of wave ii in silver ended at the 21.96 low and in that case we have already starting rallying in wave iii. This is our alternate count.

 

We will give this market another week to see if this is what is really happening.   

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We plan to add to our long silver positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop, and will add at 19.50.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.642{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 1.635{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to rally higher in this market and now have now reached our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ^ii^, which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.580{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we need to move lower from these lvels in the start of a wave ^iii^ drop otherwise we need to conclude that the multi-year bear market in rates in complete at the 0.386{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and that we have started to climb higher again for years to come.  

 

On our Daily 10 Year US Bond Yield Chart we now have a ending diagonal triangle formation which you will see in our Monday Morning Post. This is the same pattern that we saw at the recent top in the CDNX. To complete the pattern we now need a break below the lower trendline which is connected at 1.403{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and 1.497{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. If this observation is correct then we should see a sharp drop in rates starting next week.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1421oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially higher again this past week reaching a high of 67.98, although we closed lower at 65.61.          

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

Within wave (iii), we continue to rally higher in wave -i-, which is now be extending higher and trying to break above the 66.00/67.00 resistance level target. A successful break above this level will see run to the 77.00 level, before all of wave -i- ends.

 

We have now broken above our multi-year downtrend line that is shown on our Weekly Crude Chart, which is a very bullish signal for this market!!

 

After wave -i- ends we expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally, as the next big event in this market. We will provide those retracement levels once we believe that all of wave -i- is complete.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1421su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 23.63, closing at 23.53.

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -i- ended at the 19.94 and likely all of wave -ii- at the 16.29 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-=31.29.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1421sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time new high at 3960.27, closing at 3943.34.

 

It was a quick correction, but it looks like all of wave -iv- of (iii) ended just short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level at 3723.34. Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- were:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3718.02

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3574.25.

 

We should now be rallying in wave -v- of (iii), where our current projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We are getting close to our projected endpoint for all of wave (iii). After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retracements between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally. At current levels this should result in a 300 to 500 point correction in the SP500.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1421usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 92.53, but we closed lower at 91.68.

 

Wave -iii- is now complete at the 89.17 low and we are rallying in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

Wave -iv- now has a completed 3 wave rally from the wave -iii- low of 89.17.

 

We cannot rule the possibility that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 92.53 high and that we have now started to fall again in wave -v-.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1421cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply higher this past reaching a high of 982.25, closing on its high of 982.25.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

We updated our count for the CDNX last we to suggest that wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, and a portfolio of awesome cdnx juniors, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1421gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 33.13, closing at 33.08!

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

We continue to hold the major support line, and believe that all of wave *ii* is likely complete at the 30.64 low. We now need to be on guard for the start of a major rally in wave *iii*.

 

If all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 30.64 low then our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                   

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions at 31.50.

 

Bitcoin: 

 

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1421btc.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching another all-time high of 61749, closing at 60267!

 

In the longer term Bitcoin appears to rising in an incomplete impulse fashion and we are getting close to finishing an impulsive sequence with wave (3) of 1 or A ending at the 58349 high.

 

It looks like all of wave (4) ended at the 43665 low and we are now rallying in wave (5).

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave (5) rally at the current high of 61749.

 

This current wave (5) rally will complete a 5 wave impulsive sequence for this market. Either a wave 1 of A will be completed and the next move for this market will be a 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement correction in either wave 2 or B of the entire move in bitcoin.

 

For example a 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement from the current high would see bitcoin drop to the 24000 level!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew