mar 15 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was marginally higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 982.25 and closing on its high of 982.25.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

We are now working on the assumptions that all of wave -i- of .iii. ended at the 1113.64 high and that we are now falling in wave -ii- of .iii.. Wave -ii- has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 889.63;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 836.63.

 

Our current low for this wave -ii- correction is 867.26, which lands within our retracement levels shown above. On the Intraday Chart we appear to have a completed 3 wave drop within wave -ii-, so we cannot rule the possibility that all of wave -ii- is now complete and that we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-. Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

Longer term, we should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521gdxd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 32.08, but we closed just marginally higher at 33.08.

 

Our lengthy wave *ii* correction continues to develop as shown on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts, although it may finally be complete at the 30.64 low.

 

We have now completed all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave *ii* at the current low, and are waiting for this market to start to turn higher. 

 

We have now closed above the 32.54 low which is a good sign for the bulls and are now challenging the 33.25 resistance level.

 

We expect to break higher today!

 

he final confirmation of the end of this diagonal triangle and the end of wave ^ii^ will come when we trade above the wave -iv- high of 34.35, although we now need to seriously be on guard for the completion of our wave ^ii^ correction at these levels and the start of a big reversal as we begin to move sharply higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii*, which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1731.10!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above the 1759.00 high.

 

The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 26.26!

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still really starting to wonder whether silver will actually drop by another $6 plus as our current count is suggesting, based on where gold is now trading. For now we will stay with our current count for silver, but out confidence in this count is not high at the moment.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                           

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1.642{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.605{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We have now reached our maximum retracement level for our current count to remain valid which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}= 1.580{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.   

 

As shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart we appear to have an ending diagonal triangle formation, which has is complete. If this formation is valid then we should now see us drop below the lower red trendline which crosses at 1.403{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and 1.497{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

This drop should complete all of wave -c and ^ii^. The next few days should be interesting in this market.                 

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we must now start to turn lower, otherwise we will need to assume that a major multi-decade low in interest rates has been made at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. Rates would now be heading higher for many years to come.

 

Our alternate count is now shown on the US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart and this count is suggesting that we are heading to the 1.91{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level in wave (iii), before we see a meaningful correction in wave (iv).        

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 moved sideways in Friday’s trading session, although we closed marginally higher at 3943.34. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 3 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

It looks like all of wave -iv- ended at the 3723.45 low and we are now rallying in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at yesterday’s high of 3960.27.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 91.54. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 91.87.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

We have now rallied into our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the possible completion of all of wave -iv-, although this market could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends. Wave -iv- may now be complete at the 92.53 high.

                                                            

Other projections for the completion of wave -iv- are:

 

*c* =*a* = 92.11.

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1521oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 66.24. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 64.79.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) continues to move higher as we are now breaking above our major multi-year downtrend line that connects 147.27, 112.24, 107.68, 76.90 and 65.65. We have resistance at the $65.00/$66.00 level, but a breach of that would suggest a run to the $77.00 level before we get a more meaningful correction is wave $ii$. Wave $i$ may finally be ending at the 67.98 high.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew