mar 29 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 919.25, and closing at 936.60.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

From an Ewaves point of we have satisfied the minimum requirements for the completion of all of wave $ii$ at the 919.25 low and have also reached our 61.8% retracement for all of wave $ii$. Wave $ii$ looks to have a 3 wave corrective sequence on the Intraday Chart.

 

We are now need to really be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ and the start of our sharp wave $iii$ rally higher.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 31.91, closing at 32.24.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all or most of wave -ii- at the 31.91 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of this wave -ii- correction are:

 

50% = 32.58;

61.8% = 32.11.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we really need to be on  for the end of wave -ii- and the start of a sharp rally higher in wave -iii- of ^i^.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.                             

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was initially higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1744.80.

 

After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1719.40.

 

We continue to watch for the imminent breakout above our blue downtrend line as shown on our Daily Gold Chart!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.

 

The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 24.45.

 

After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 25.33.

 

We have updated our current silver count to suggest that all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low. If that is the case then we have started to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 28.11, and we are now working on a complex wave -iii- correction. Our minimum target for the end of our ending diagonal triangle wave *c* and all of wave -ii- is the wave *a* of -iii- low of 24.04. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 24.74

61.8% = 24.32.

 

There is an outside chance that all of wave -ii- ended as a failure at the 24.45 low, but that will be our alternate count for now.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                              

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.591%. In the overnight session we have moved sharply higher reaching a high of 1.676%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921sp120.png

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 53.50, but we closed higher at 3909.53. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 6 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at the current high of 3983.87, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 92.94. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 92.88 level.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 91.95.

38.2% = 93.68.

 

It looks like wave -iv- has become more complex than we had original thought, but we still believe that all or most of it is likely complete at these current levels. On the Intraday Chart is looks like wave -iv- has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

We could still move higher to our 38.2% retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends.

                                                            

Another projection for the completion of wave -iv- is:

 

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2921oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 57.45. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 60.26.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

We expect further weakness.

 

On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a 5 wave drop from the 67.98 high to the 57.27 low. If that is the case then this completes our first drop in a possible 3 wave corrective pattern that will form all of our wave $ii$ correction.

 

Therefore we should now expect the rally again (50% to 61.8% of the first drop) before we drop one more time, below the 57.27 low to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will breakthrough this line decisively to move sharply higher.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew