mar 3 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan721cdnx.png [captainewave.com]

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 1045.85, but we closed lower at 1027.75.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Wave (iii) is now complete at the 1113.64 high and we are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1010.47;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 946.64.                   

 

We now have at least one complete 3 wave drop from 1113.64 to the current low of 988.56, and we have also entered our retracement zone. We cannot rule the possibly that all of wave (iv) is now complete at the 988.56 low.

 

Added to that is we now have an island reversal on the Daily CDNX Chart, which is a bullish reversal… if it holds.

 

Our only concern was the time it took for wave (iv) to develop was pretty quick, so it could be possible that it will be become more complex and even a bullish triangle formation before it actually ends… but it does not need to.

 

If wave (iv) is now complete then we should be heading higher again in wave (v), which as minimum target of 1113.64. We will provide other projections when we believe all of wave (iv) is complete.

 

Longer term, we should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ key CDNX juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar321gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar321gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 32.21, closing at 31.96.

 

Our lengthy wave *ii* correction continues to develop as shown on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts, although there’s a chance it may finally be compete at the 30.72 low..

 

We have now completed all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave *ii* at the current low. The one piece that was missing us reaching at least our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level (30.98) which we did in last Friday’s trading session.  

 

The first sign that wave *ii* is complete would be a break and close above the 32.54 low and then the final confirmation of the end of this diagonal triangle and the end of wave ^ii^ will come when we trade above the wave -iv- high of 34.35.

 

We now need to seriously be on guard for the completion of our wave ^ii^ correction at these levels and the start of a big reversal as we begin to move sharply higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii*, which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We added to our long GDX on Friday at 31.50.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar321gold.png  

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1738.90. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1706.10.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;                                                                        

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

It now appears likely to us that all of wave ^ii^ is now complete at the 1704.60 low and if that is the case then we should start to rally sharply higher in our long awaited wave ^iii^ rally.

 

The first good sign for the bulls will be a break and close above the 1759.00 high and the final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar321si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 26.98. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 26.17.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are really starting to wonder silver will actually drop by $6 plus as our current count is suggesting, based on where gold is now trading. For now we will stay with our current count for silver, but out confidence in this count is dropping fast.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.  

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar321bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. After that low was made we moved higher to reach a high of 1.455{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We have now reached our maximum retracement level for our current count to remain valid which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}= 1.580{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.                    

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we must now start to turn lower, otherwise we will need to assume that a major multi-decade low in interest rates has been made at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. Rates would now be heading higher for many years to come.

 

Our alternate count is now shown on the US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart and this count is suggesting that we are heading to the 1.91{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level in wave (iii), before we see a meaningful correction in wave (iv).        

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar321spd.png

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar321sp120.png

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3868.57. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 17 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We are now working on the assumption that this never ending wave -iii- rally is finally complete at the 3950.43 high and if that is the case then we should now be falling in our expected wave -iv- correction.

 

 We expect our wave -iv- correction will retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

We will provide those retracement levels when ae are sure that all of wave -iii- is complete. Wave -iv- should take a month or so to develop.

 

We are also now watching a potential ending diagonal triangle formation on the Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts. This formation needs another rally above the 3950.43 to become complete.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar321usd.png Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued for most of the overnight session as we reached a low of 90.64.

 

After that low was made we recovered some of those losses to currently be trading at the 91.04 level.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iii- is now complete at the 89.17 low and that we have started to rally higher in wave -iv-. Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

From the 91.61 high to the current low of 89.69 we appear to have a 3 wave drop on the Intraday Chart. If this observation is correct then once this corrective pattern ends the USDX should start heading back to at least the 91.61 high again, but more likely into our retracement zone to complete all of wave -iv-.

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar321oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 59.25. After that low was made we recovered some of those losses to currently be trading at the 60.38 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

It now looks like wave $i$ of (iii) could be complete at the 63.81 high. After wave $i$ ends we expect a wave $ii$ correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $i$ rally. We will provide those retracement levels we believe that all of wave $i$ is complete.

 

Crude has now reached our major multi-year downtrend line that connects 147.27, 112.24, 107.68, 76.90 and 65.65. If wave $i$ continues higher, then we should soon see a very sharp rally through this major trendline that could see crude reach the $70/$75 level before all of wave $i$ ends.   

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

Although wave -ii- was short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level it is looking like we are now rallying higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew