MAR 7 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar721gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1683.00, closing at 1698.50.  Our counts have been solid.

                                                                          

We continue to drop in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.70;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1694.50.

 

Wave ^ii^ is still underway and has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, as we continue to fall in our second wave (c) of ^ii^.

 

We have now dropped to our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we really now need to be guard for the completion of all of wave ^ii^ and that start of a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^.

 

Confirmation of the completion of wave ^ii^ will occur if we rally above the 1759.00 low, which would put us back within our ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

On the Intraday Chart we are also watching for a smaller ending diagonal triangle formation which appears complete at the 1683.00 low.

 

We now need to rally above the 1721.40 high to confirm it’s completion.at 1683.00.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of wave ^iii^ when we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops, and we added more at 1735.00 on Friday.  

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar721si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 24.84, closing at 25.29.  

                                                                  

We continue to believe that wave ii of 3 is still underway, with the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still falling in wave c which has a minimum target of the wave a low of 21.81, but likely lower…somewhere within our above mentioned retracement zone. However, based on what silver is doing compared to gold we are not so sure that silver is going to fall all the way back to the 21.00 level. It could be possible that all of wave ii in silver ended at the 21.96 low and in that case we have already starting rallying in wave iii.

 

We will give this market another week to see if this is what is really happening.   

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long-term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We plan to add to our long silver positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop, and will add at 19.50.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.626{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 1.554{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to rally higher in this market and now have now reached our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ^ii^, which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.580{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we need to move lower from these levels in the start of a wave ^iii^ drop otherwise we need to conclude that the multi-year bear market in rates is complete at the 0.386{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and that we have started to climb higher again for years to come.  

 

Think… inflation, and maybe a lot of it!  This is how the wave counts for higher gold AND higher rates can work in sync from a fundamental perspective, but our job is not to fit the counts into anything other than the counts themselves.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar721soil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher again this past week reaching a high of 66.42, closing at 66.09.                                                                                      

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

Within wave (iii), we continue to rally higher in wave -i-, which is now be extending higher and a break of the 66.00/67.00 resistance level targets a run to the 77.00 level, before it ends.

 

We have now broken above our multi-year downtrend line that is shown on our Weekly Crude Chart, which is a very bullish signal for this market.

 

After wave -i- ends we expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally, as the next big event in this market. We will provide those retracement levels once we believe that all of wave -i- is complete.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar721su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor moved higher this past week reaching a high of 22.39, closing at 21.99.

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii!

 

Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -i- ended at the 19.94 and likely all of wave -ii- at the 16.29 low. If that is the case, then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-.    

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar721spw.png

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 3723.34, but we closed higher at 3841.94!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iii- is finally be complete at the 3950.43 high. If that is the case, we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3718.02

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3574.25.

 

Last week’s low is very close to our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, but we think that wave -iv- is still developing, in spite of the very strong rally in the SP500 last Friday.

 

We will see how this market reacts to the passage of the $1.9 trillion COVID package by the US Government.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar721usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 91.22, closing at 91.64.

 

Wave -iii- is now complete at the 89.17 low and we are rallying in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

Wave -iv- now has a completed 3 wave rally from the wave -iii- low of 89.17. Wave -iv- has also reached our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 91.95…

 

so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of another drop in wave -v-.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar721cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower this past reaching a low of 867.26, closing at 918.36.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

The big drop in the CDNX this week are required to revise our count to now suggest that wave .iii. is subdividing with all of wave -i- of .iii. ending at the 1113.64 high and likely all or most of wave -ii- at the 867.26 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- od .iii.

 

Our retracement level for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 889.53

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 836.63.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii- of .iii. when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.                            

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ and quality CDNX juniors, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar721gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 30.64, but in spite of gold being lower this week… GDX closed higher at 31.78!!

 

Our retracement level for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

We continue to hold the major support line, and believe that all of wave *ii* is almost complete or complete the 30.64 low.

 

 We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a major rally in wave *iii*.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                              

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we have added to our long positions at 31.50!

 

Bitcoin: 

 

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar721bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching a high of 52625, closing at 50629.

 

Bitcoin started trading on this chart in 2014 and as you can see in our Bitcoin Weekly Chart that it has risen sharply form that inception date.

 

In the longer term Bitcoin appears to rising in an incomplete impulse fashion as we are getting close to finishing an impulsive sequence with wave (3) of 1 or A ending at the 58349 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (4) which has current low of 43665, which is just within our retracement level for all of wave (4) which is:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 45327;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 37271.

 

We need to be on guard o the completion of all of wave (4) at the current low, however, we think more time is be needed for the wave (4) correction to develop.

 

After wave (4) ends we expect another rally above the 58349 high in wave (5) to complete either all of wave 1 of a wave B.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew