mar 8 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Sorry for late send.  Email send acnt froze.  OK now.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially sharply lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 867.26, although we recovered some of those losses to close modestly lower at 918.36.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

The initial deep drop on Friday has required us to relook at our current count, and we now think that all of wave -i- of .iii. ended at the 1113.64 high and that we are now falling in wave -ii- of .iii..

 

Wave -ii- has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 889.63;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 836.63.

 

Our current low for this wave -ii- correction is 867.26, so we have satisfied our retracement level with this low. It also looks like we also have a completed 3 wave drop within wave -ii-, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of a sharp wave .iii. of -iii. rally.

 

We will provide out first projections for the end of wave -iii-, when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Longer term, we should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and some mighty CDNX juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Again on Friday, in spite of the drop in gold, the GDX moved higher to reach a high of 31.88, closing at 31.78!!

 

Our lengthy wave *ii* correction continues to develop as shown on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts, although it may finally be complete at the 30.64 low.

 

We have now completed all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave *ii* at the current low, and are waiting for this market to start to turn higher. 

 

The first sign that wave *ii* is complete would be a break and close above the 32.54 low and then the final confirmation of the end of this diagonal triangle and the end of wave ^ii^ will come when we trade above the wave -iv- high of 34.35.

 

We now need to seriously be on guard for the completion of our wave ^ii^ correction at these levels and the start of a big reversal as we begin to move sharply higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii*, which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1705.70.

 

In the overnight session we initially moved higher to reach a high of 1711.80, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching allow of 1681.40.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;                                                        

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level and gold has become oversold on a daily basis.

 

We still believe that all or most of this wave ^ii^ correction is about complete at these levels. We should start to see the beginning of our sharp wave ^iii^ rally begin at any time now.

 

The first good sign for the bulls will be a break and close above the 1759.00 high and the final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

On the Intraday Chart we are still watching a developing ending diagonal triangle formation, which could be complete at the 1681.70 low.

 

We now need a break and close above the 1721.40 level to confirm its completion at the 1681.70 low, and likely the end of a long wave ^ii^ correction.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session reaching allow of 24.84.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 25.96, although after making that high we have moved lower currently trading at the 25.14 level.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still really starting to wonder whether silver will actually drop by another $6 plus as our current count is suggesting, based on where gold is now trading. For now we will stay with our current count for silver, but out confidence in this count is dropping fast.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.                                                                                                                                               

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1.626{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1.603{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

We have now reached our maximum retracement level for our current count to remain valid which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}= 1.580{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.                    

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we must now start to turn lower, otherwise we will need to assume that a major multi-decade low in interest rates has been made at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. Rates would now be heading higher for many years to come.

 

Our alternate count is now shown on the US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart and this count is suggesting that we are heading to the 1.91{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level in wave (iii), before we see a meaningful correction in wave (iv).        

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821spd.png 120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was sharply higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 3851.69. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 25 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We are now working on the assumption that this never ending wave -iii- rally is finally complete at the 3950.43 high and if that is the case then we should now be falling in our expected wave -iv- correction. Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3718.02.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3574.25.

 

Wave -iv- should take a month or so to develop.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821usd.png Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 92.36.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

We have now reached our minimum retracement level with the 92.36 high, so we need to be on guard for the possible completion of all of wave -iv-, although this market could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends. Other projections for the completion of wave -iv- are:

 

*c* =*a* = 92.11.

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.

                                                                                                               

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar821oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 67.98, although we have since dropped off that high to currently be trading at the 65.68 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) continues to move higher as we are now breaking above our major multi-year downtrend line that connects 147.27, 112.24, 107.68, 76.90 and 65.65. We have resistance at the $65.00/$66.00 level, but a breach of that would suggest a run to the $77.00 level before we get a more meaningful correction is wave $ii$.  

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew