may 11 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 962.87, although we closed lower at 940.34.

 

Note the possible head and shoulders bottom pattern on our CDNX Daily Chart.

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

We continue to wait for confirmation that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 909.06 low. If it is then we should see the CNDX start to move starting higher in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projected endpoint for all of wave $iii$, after we believe that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

On the Intraday Chart it looks we will be heading back to 935.19 low to complete a small corrective pattern that started at the 962.05 high. If our observation is correct we should then start to move sharply higher breaking through our neckline, and confirming that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 906.06 low.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121gdxd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 38.22, although we closed just marginally lower at 37.38!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, but based on the internal wave structure for wave -iii- we now believe we are subdividing which is suggesting that a higher initial target is in order for wave -iii- which is now:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70     

 

Within wave -iii-, we are now working on the assumption that all of wave $ii$ ended at the 34.31 low. We should therefore now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

Next short term resistance is 39.01.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1846.30. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1842.00 level.

                                                                                           

We are now rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. We should now be rallying in wave -iii- and expect to continue to move higher to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

We have now reaching our next projected endpoint for the completion of wave -iii-, but it does not look like the internal wave structure of wave -iii- is complete, so we still expect higher prices above the current high of 1846.30. We will give this market another day or so to see how much more upside we have in wave -iii-. If wave -iii- is extending higher than our next projected endpoint is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to be working on a bullish triangle formation that started at the 1844.40 high that was made last Friday. The triangle is not quite complete but if this observation is orrect, after this triangle ends we should see a thrust higher in gold likely to our next resistance level of 1856.60.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 28.00. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 27.21. After that low was made we moved higher to currently be trading at the 27.57 level!

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

Next resistance is the 28.10/28.50 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.622%!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4188.13. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 41 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at4236.39 high.

 

If that is the case we should now be falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

We are now going short!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Trading Recommendation: Go Short with calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Shorting now, with calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially marginally lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 90.01. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 90.06 level.

 

We continue to fall in wave -v-.  

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1121oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 63.88!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 66.75 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew