Weekly Gold Chart:


Long Term Update:


Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of 1859.20, closing at 1879.90.


As we continue to mention, the depth of this wave ^iv^ correction has exceeded our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement, with the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level being:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1827.00.


We are working on the assumption that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 1851.00 low, although we have now introduced another alternate count that is suggesting that we are still working on an extending wave ^iii^.


In this alternate we believe that wave $iii$ of ^iii^ ended at 2077.90 and the current drop is a bullish wave $iv$ triangle that is now expanding and extending.


For this alternate to remain valid we cannot trade below the 1851.00 low.


After this bullish wave $iv$ triangle ends we expect to thrust sharply higher in wave $v$ of ^iii. Our second alternate count is shown in red on our Daily Gold Chart.


Although we still have doubts about our current preferred count if it is correct then then we should be rallying in wave ^v^ of *iii*, which that following initial projected endpoint:                                                 


*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.


We do have higher projections also.           


Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    




Weekly Silver Chart:


Long Term Update:


Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 22.62, closing at 23.65.


We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave i of 3 ended at the 29.91 high and all of wave ii at the 21.81 low although we are still short of 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Those retracement levels are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.


If wave ii is complete then we should be starting a very sharp rally in wave iii.  


Silver may also working on a bullish triangle option.


Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:


3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   


In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;


1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.


Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.


US 10 Year Bond Yield:


Long Term Update:


The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a low of 0.746{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, although we closed almost unchanged at 0.865{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.


We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.


With our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We now think that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex and believe that a rally back to the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high should be expected before all of wave ^ii^ ends.


Within wave ^ii^, wave -b- ended at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are now rallying in wave -c-, which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, before it ends.  


Active Positions: Flat.


Crude Oil:


Weekly Crude Oil Chart:  

Long Term Update:                                                                          


Crude was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 34.92, closing at 35.79.                                                          



Wave (i) is now complete at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.


We should expect a least a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave (ii). We probably completed wave $a$ at the 36.13 low and we likely completed wave $b$ at 41.90. We should now be dropping in wave $c$ to complete the 3 wave correction. The other option is that we are still working on our wave $a$ drop.  


In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:


C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.




Weekly Suncor Chart:


Long Term Update:


Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 10.67, closing at 11.29.


It appears Suncor is now heading at least back to the 9.61 low to complete its multi-decade wave B low.


We may be undulating our long term count slightly next week to show this scenario.


Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                                




Weekly SP500 Chart:


Long Term Update:


The SP500 was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 3233.94, closing at 3269.96.  


We still believe we are rallying in an incomplete wave -iii- of (iii) that has the following projected endpoint:


-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.


Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .iii. at the 3588.11 high, although we now getting very close to the 3209.45 low, which is our current wave .iv. low. It could be that wave iv. is still underway, and still could become bullish triangle, but for our current analysis to remain valid we cannot drop below the wave .i. high of 3153.55.


In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:


(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.


Active Positions: Flat.




Weekly USDX Chart:


Long Term Update:


The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 94.14, closing at 94.04.


We are still working on wave -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:


-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.


Within wave -iii-, it looks like all of wave *iii* ended at the 91.75 low, but is now looking like wave *iv* is becoming a bearish triangle. A break of the 94.80 high would eliminate this bearish triangle option.


If wave *iv* did end at the 94.80 high then we should now be falling in wave *v* of -iii-.


Active Positions: Flat.




Weekly CDNX Chart:


Long Term Update:


The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 676.47, closing at 683.78.


We are still working on wave -iii-of .i., and within wave -iii- it now looks like wave (iv) is becoming more complex. If that is then case we should revisit the 665.61 low one more time before all of wave (iv) ends.


The other option is that wave (iv) could become bullish triangle as long as we stay above the 665.61 low.


Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:


-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.


We noted a possible head and shoulders bottoming formation on the daily CDNX Chart which could be suggesting higher prices lie ahead.          


After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 382.{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. 


Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.


Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.




Weekly GDX Chart:


Long Term Update:                                     


The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 36.01, but with an interesting close at 37.49!


It looks like wave ^iv^ is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 36.01 low.


Our very bullish alternate count is still valid and suggesting we are still working on wave ^iii^.


Within wave ^iii^, wave -iii- ended at 37.49 and we are working on a large bullish wave -iv- triangle that may have completed wave $c$ at the 36.01 low.


If that is the case we should start to moved higher in wave $d$, which will then be followed by a wave $e$ drop to complete all of wave ^iv^.


Our first projection for the end of wave ^v^ and 3 is:


3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20


We do have higher targets also.


Next significant resistance at the 51.67 level.  


Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!



Captain & Crew