NOV 14 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov1421gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1871.40, closing at 1868.50!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave .c. at 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d..

 

Wave .d., looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave ^b^ ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

We are rallying in wave ^c^ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20, otherwise we will adopt one of our alternate counts.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

This week we continued to march higher as broke after significant resistance at the 1835/1840 level and also breaking and closing above the major down trendline connecting 2089.40 and 1919.20.

 

We broke above our head and shoulder bottoming formation neckline.

 

It was a quite a bullish week for gold!!

 

Our current wave ^c^ of .d. rally has become an impulsive sequence with all of wave $i$ ending at the 1815.50 high and all of wave $ii$ at the 1758.50 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^c^, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1911.20.

 

We still expect higher prices next week within wave $iii$.

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov1421si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this past week reaching a high of 25.47, closing at 25.35!  

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41.

 

We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We reached our 24.94 resistance level and it looks like all of wave -i- of iii ended at the 24.92 low and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which is not complete at the 23.05 high.

 

We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 28.73.

 

We also broke through the neckline of our head and shoulder bottoming formation on the Daily Silver Chart.

 

We expect higher prices next week as next major resistance is the down trendline connection 30.35 and 28.95. This line crosses at about 26.25/26.40 right now.                                         

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield were initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1.415, but by the end of week we had moved higher reaching a high of 1.592%, closing at 1.589%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades, we are rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.691% high. We think the current rally is a correction of the impulsive sequence that ran form 1.691% to 1.415%. After this correction ends we expect yields to turn lower again as we fall in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low.

 

We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov1421oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude had a large trading range this week ranging from 84.97 to 79.78, closing lower on the week at 80.79.

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, with our wave (iv) bullish triangle ended at the 69.39 low, as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

We are thrusting higher in wave (v), which see a run to the $90/95 level below it ends.

 

Next major resistance is the 91.24 level.

 

We have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for completed wave (v) based on price, but the internal wave structure is still not complete at the 85.41 high, so we expect higher prices lie ahead before all of wave i ends.

 

After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

On the Intraday Chart crude may be working on s till developing bullish triangle, which suggest higher prices lie ahead after this formation ends.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78!

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov1421su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 25.44, closing at 25.77.

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We are on the verge of a major breakout as shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart. We expect much higher prices in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                             

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov1421sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 moved sideways this past week although we closed lower at 4682.85.

 

It appears unlikely now that all of wave (iii) ended at the 4545.85 high as the drop off that high to 4278.97 was likely too shallow to be all of wave (iv).

 

It could be that we are still extending higher in wave (iii).

 

We will take another look and provide further updates in the days ahead.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov1421usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 95.27, closing at 95.13!

 

Our wave *iv* of -iii- bearish triangle was eliminated this week and we have updated our count to now suggest that with wave -iii- of (i) of iii ended at the 89.17 low.

 

 

 

The current rally is wave -iv-, although the depth of the retracement is now around 50%, which is getting a bit deep for a wave -iv-.

 

The option very bearish option is that all of wave (i0 of iii ended the 89.7 low and the current rally is wave (ii), which is nearing completion.

 

If this alternate count is correct then the USDX will be heading much lower than our current preferred count is suggesting.

 

We will likely be shorting this market again early next week.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov1421cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply higher this past week, reaching a high of 1023.70 and closing on its high of 1023.70!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

We may be getting close to the completion of wave $i$ of -iii-, so after it ends we should expect a wave $ii$ correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave $i$ rally.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov1421gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 35.01, closing at 34.77!

 

All of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which has the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii*, all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii ended at 33.95  and all of wave -ii- at the 30.96 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii- which has and initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

We also broke through the neckline of our head and shoulders bottoming formation. 

 

We expect higher prices again next week.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                              

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov1421bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching a high of 68979 closing at 64304!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly. Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low. We are now rallying in wave (b) which now looks to be complete at the 68979 high. We still expect to fall back in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew