nov 16 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

NOTE OUR METALLA BUY THIS MORNING IN SEPARATE EMAIL!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620cdnx.png

 

The CDNX moved sideways in Friday’s trading session, closing at 736.37.

 

We believe that wave (iv) could now be complete at the 665.81 low, and if it is then we should now be moving higher as shown in the Daily CDNX Chart.

 

It could still be possible that wave (iv) is still underway as an expanding and extending bullish triangle. For this bullish triangle alternate to remain valid we cannot trade below the 665.81 low. Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv) are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 681.63;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 634.32.

 

After wave (iv) ends we still expect another rally in wave (v) to complete all of wave -iii-. In our alternate count we could be starting to move sharply higher now in wave $iii$ of (v) of -iii-.

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                                                                                  

                                                                                        

Longer term after wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold.   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was marginally higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 38.35, closing at 38.01.

 

We now believe that all of wave ^iv^ is now complete at the 36.01 low and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave ^v^. Within wave ^v^, it looks like wave -i- ended at the 41.81 high, although this wave -iii- drop has gotten very deep, now exceeding our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 37.25.

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we must turn up now. Once wave -ii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in a wave -iii- of ^v^.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave ^v^ and wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our alternate bullish triangle count is still valid and is shown in purple in our Daily GDX Chart. This alternate count is suggesting that we are still working on wave ^iii^ and within wave ^iii^, we are working on an expanding and extending wave -iv- that is now rallying in wave $d$, which may be complete at the 41.81 high. Wave $e$ and all of the wave -iv- bullish triangle could be complete at the 36.73 low. For this current triangle alternate to remain valid we cannot trade below the 36.01 wave $c$ low.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v- to complete all of wave ^iii^.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1897.70.

 

After that high was made we moved lower to reach a low of 1862.00, and have since recovered some to be trading at the 1875.00 level. 

 

It looks like wave ^iv^ is still underway as a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 1848.00 low. A break and move higher above 1888.10 would be a good sign for the bulls.

 

After wave ^iv^ ends we expect another rally in wave ^v^ of *iii*. Our projected endpoint for all of wave ^v^ and wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 25.16. After that high was made we moved lower reaching  a low of 24.27, although we have now recovered some to be trading at the 24.48 level.

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high and likely all of wave (ii) at the 21.81 low.

 

If this count is correct then silver is now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii). Within wave (iii) it looks like wave -i- ended at 24.55 and wave -ii- at 22.63. If that is the case then we should be rallying sharply in wave -iii-.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.37.

 

A break and sharp move above 24.43 would be a good sign for the bulls. Next major resistance is 26.00/26.10 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield market was marginally lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 0.872{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 0.931{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We have finally reached our minimum projection for the completion of wave -c- and ^ii^ at the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We have also reached our retracement zone for wave ^ii^., which is:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 3593.66. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 40 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14!

 

Within wave (iii), it now complete at the 3233.94 low. It was a rare failure low.

 

It now may be possible that all of .v. and -iii- are complete at the 3645.99 high, even though we are still a bit short of our projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave -iii- is complete and that a wave -iv- drop is about to begin. Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.                                                                                        

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower initially continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 92.44. After that low was made we moved higher to currently be trading at the 92.77 level.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iv* is now complete at the 94.80 high and we are therefore now falling in wave *v*. Our next projected endpoint for end of wave *v* and all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov1620oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 40.06.

 

In the overnight session we have moved sharply higher reaching a high of 42.02.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

Within wave (ii) it looks like wave $a$ ended at 36.13 and wave $b$ at 41.90. If that is the case then we are now falling in wave $c$, to complete all of wave (ii).

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii) at the 33.65 low, but we are still short of our retracement levels, so we still expect some further weakness. If wave (ii) is now complete at the 33.65 low then we should expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii) as the next big event in this market.  

 

Suncor:

 Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew