nov 20 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 732.12, closing at 729.44.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 665.81 low, and if it is then we should now be moving higher as shown in the Daily CDNX Chart.

 

It could still be possible that wave (iv) is still underway as an expanding and extending bullish triangle. For this bullish triangle alternate to remain valid we cannot trade below the 665.81 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv) are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 681.63;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 634.32.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect another rally in wave (v) to complete all of wave -iii-. We should be moving sharply higher now in wave $iii$ of (v) of -iii-.

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                          

                                                                                        

Longer term after wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 35.20, closing at 35.52.

 

It looks like our “never-ending wave ^iv^ correction” is still underway as shown on the Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts. It looks like for our preferred count that wave ^iv^ has become a down 3 wave pattern.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ^iv^ are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

The current low of 35.20 is at the 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we need to be on guard again for the completion of wave ^iv^ and the start of our long awaited wave ^v^ rally.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave ^v^ and wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our alternate bullish triangle count is still valid and is shown in purple in our Daily GDX Chart.

 

This alternate count is still suggesting that we are working on wave ^iii^ and within wave ^iii^, we are working on an expanding and extending wave -iv- bullish triangle, where we may have completed wave $c$ at the 35.20 low.

 

After wave $c$ ends we expect a wave $d$ rally that will be followed by a wave $e$ drop to complete all of wave -iv-. After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v- to complete all of wave ^iii^.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1850.00.

 

After that low as made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1868.80.

 

It looks like wave ^iv^ is still underway as a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 1848.00 low.

 

A break and move higher above 1898.00 would be a good sign for the bulls.

 

After wave ^iv^ ends we expect another rally in wave ^v^ of *iii*. Our projected endpoint for all of wave ^v^ and wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reach a low of 23.67. After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 24.31.

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high and likely all of wave (ii) at the 21.81 low. If this count is correct then silver is now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii).

 

Within wave (iii) it looks like wave -i- ended at 24.55 and wave -ii- at 22.63. If that is the case then we should be rallying sharply in wave -iii-.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.37.

 

A break and sharp move above 24.43 would be a good sign for the bulls. Next major resistance is 26.00/26.10 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield market was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 0.818{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case, we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We have finally reached our minimum projection for the completion of wave -c- and ^ii^ at the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We have also reached our retracement zone for wave ^ii^., which is:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020spd.png  

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3543.84, although we closed higher at 3581.87.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 4 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it now complete at the 3233.94 low. It was a rare failure low.

 

It now may be possible that all of .v. and -iii- are complete at the 3645.99 high, even though we are still a bit short of our projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave -iii- is complete and that a wave -iv- drop is about to begin. Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.                                                                                        

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 92.66. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 92.20.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iv* is now complete at the 94.80 high and we are therefore now falling in wave *v*. Our next projected endpoint for end of wave *v* and all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2020oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 42.17 level.

 

We have adopted our alternate count that is suggesting that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) in the next day or so.  

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew