NOV 21 WEEKLY CHARTS POST

 

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121gold.png  

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 1879.50, although we closed at little lower at 1851.60.

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave .c. at 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d..

 

Wave .d., looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave ^b^ ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave ^c^ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20, other wise we will adopt one of our alternate counts.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We are still short of our $iii$ projected high of 1911.20 so we believe after this current correction ends we will be moving higher again.

 

There’s an outside that chance that all of wave $iii$ ended at the 1879.50 high and if that is the case then we now correcting in wave $iv$.

 

If you look at past history you will see that wave $v$’s are usually stronger in the metals that wave $iii$’s.

 

Our current wave ^c^ of .d. rally has become an impulsive sequence with all of wave $i$ ending at the 1815.50 high and all of wave $ii$ at the 1758.50 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^c^, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1911.20.

 

If wave $iii$ is still underway then we should expect higher prices next week.

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was slightly lower this past week reaching a low of 24.61, closing at 24.78. 

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41.

 

We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

 -iii- = 1.618-i- = 28.73.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 25.49 to the current low of 24.61 is corrective looking which I suggested that once this small correction ends silver will be moving higher again!                                  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 1.646% but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1.521%, closing at 1.536%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.691% high. We think the current rally is a correction of the impulsive sequence that ran from 1.691% to 1.415%.

 

After this correction ends we expect yields to turn lower again as we fall in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

This corrective rally may be complete at the 1.646% level

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnovl2121oil.png  

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply lower this week reaching a low of 75.09, closing at 75.94!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we believe we are still moving higher in wave (v). Within wave (v) we think wave $i$ ended at 85.41 and all or most of wave $ii$ at the 75.09 low. If that is the case then we should expect crude to start to move higher again in wave $iii$ of (v). We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level for all of wave $ii$.

 

The other unlikely option is that wave i of C is complete at the 85.41 high and we are now starting to fall in wave iii, which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 24.71, closing at 25.03!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We are on the verge of a major breakout as shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart. We expect much higher prices in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov21sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 moved basically sideways this past week although we closed a bit higher at 4697.96.

 

It appears unlikely now that all of wave (iii) ended at the 4545.85 high as the drop off that high to 4278.97 was likely too shallow to be all of wave (iv). It could be that we are still extending higher in wave (iii).

 

We continue to monitor, and will provide a further updates in the days ahead. We take real positions of size in this market.  Currently:

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 96.27, closing at 96.03.

 

We have undated our count to now suggest that with wave -iii- of (i) of iii ended at the 89.17 low and that the current rally is wave -iv-, although the depth of the retracement is now around 61.8 which is getting a very deep for a wave -iv-. %,

 

The other very bearish option is that all of wave (i) of iii ended the 89.7 low and the current rally is wave (ii), which is nearing completion.

 

If this alternate count is correct then the USDX will be heading much lower than our current preferred count is suggesting.

 

We will likely be shorting this market soon and maybe early this week!

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121cdnx.png  

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially marginally higher this past week reaching a high of 1025.77, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 974.03.

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

It looks like all of wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially marginally higher this past week reaching a high of 35.08, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 33.66, closing at 33.67!.

 

All of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which has the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii*, all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii ended at 33.95  and all of wave -ii- at the 30.96 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii- which has and initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

It looks like within wave ^i^ wave $iii$ ended at the 35.08 and we are now falling in an almost complete wave $iv$ correction. After wave $iv$ ends we expect one more rally in wave $v$ to complete all of wave ^i^ of -iii-.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 55655, closing at 59548!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which, basis the counts, has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (b) which now looks to be complete at the 68979 high.

 

Time continues to be an issue, and so we expect to fall back in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

Editor note:  Your editor, as I’m sure many of the subs are… is interested to hear about even the roughest projections for the Bitcoin C wave rally.  He’ll be discussing possible targets with athe Captain this week, and relaying directly to you!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew