NOV 22 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov222cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 993.33 and closing on its high of 993.33!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii is complete at the 1025.77 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 936.85;

61.8% = 915.86.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level so we expect further weakness as wave $ii$ develops.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 33.66, closing at 33.67.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high. We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- ended at 30.96, and if that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which an initial endpoint for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Within wave -iii-, wave $i$ ended at 32.69 and all of wave $ii$ at 30.68. We are now rallying in wave $iii$ which appears to be complete at the 35.08 high, and we are now falling in wave $iv$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 34.28;

38.2% = 33.51.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and the start of another rally in wave $v$. We suspect that wave $v$ will reach the next major resistance level which is the 35.82 high.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1838.00!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

We are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^c^ which has a projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1911.20.

 

We have been a bit surprised with extent of current correction and are thinking that all of wave $iii$ ended short of or current project at the 1879.50 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave $iv$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 1850.90;

38.2% = 1833.30.

 

The other option is that wave $iii$ is extending and is that is the case then we suspect that all of wave -iv- bullish triangle ended at the 1721.10 low, as described below. A test of the breakout of the 1835 level appears likely now.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221si.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 24.56. After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 24.95.

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

Wave -i- of (i) of iii is complete at the 24.92 high and so is all of wave -ii- at the 23.05 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 28.73.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 25.49 to the current low of 24.56 is corrective looking which is suggesting that once this corrective move ends silver will be heading higher again!

 

We expect higher prices in silver as wave -iii- develops.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221bond.png

  

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1.521%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.586%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

All of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high and we are now falling in wave *c*. Our minimum target for the end of wave *c* is the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We are now watching for a break and close below our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart, which will send yield lower when it happens.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 1.705% to 1.415% appears to be a completed impulsive sequence with the current rally being the correction of the drop. This corrective rally maybe be complete at the 1.646% high. We still expect to drop further in wave *c* after this current correction ends.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was initially higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 4717.95, although we closed lower at 4697.96..

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 11 points!

 

The unabated rally in the SP500 is likely suggesting that our current short term count is not correct. We are thinking that either all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v).

 

Our concern with this count is that wave (iv) was very shallow, failing to even correct to our 23.6% retracement level. The other option is that wave (iii) is extending. In either case a major drop is not very far away.

 

We will need a couple more days to study our charts to determine which option appears the most plausible.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 96.25.  In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 96.11 level.

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that all of wave -iii- ended at the 89.17 low and that current rally is wave -iv- which is likely nearing completion. Wave -iv- looks to be have become a 3 wave corrective pattern with wave *c* becoming an ending diagonal triangle that has a throwover in its final leg.

 

This rally should be ending very soon. The current retracement for all of wave -iv- has reached our 61.8% level which is:

 

61.8% = 96.28.

 

This depth of retracement  for wave -iv- is quite deep, but if this is still wave -i-v then we need to be on guard for its completion as we have reached the 61.8% retracement level. We also have another projected endpoint for all of wave *c* of -i- at:

 

*c* = 1.618*a* = 96.48.

 

The other option is that we are still falling in a subdividing wave -iii-, with wave *i* ending at 89.17 and all or most of wave *ii* ending at the 96.27 high. If that is the case then we should soon turn sharply lower in wave *iii* of -iii-.

 

We will be looking to short this market again in the days ahead.

                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 74.83!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

 

We are now working on the assumption that within wave (v), all of wave $i$ ended at the 85.41 high and we are now correcting in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

61.8% = 75.51;

78.6% = 71.92.

 

We are have now extended our 61.8% retracement level and for current analysis to remain valid we would not want to drop below the 78.6% retracement level otherwise will need to conclude that all of wave i is complete at the 85.41 high and we are dropping significantly in wave ii. Wave (ii) which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Suncor is on the verge of a major breakout to the upside as shown on our Weekly Suncor Chart.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew