nov 24 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 749.82, closing at 743.69.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 665.81 low, and if it is then we should now be moving higher as shown in the Daily CDNX Chart.

 

It could still be possible that wave (iv) is still underway as an expanding and extending bullish triangle. For this bullish triangle alternate to remain valid we cannot trade below the 665.81 low. Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv) are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 681.63;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 634.32.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect another rally in wave (v) to complete all of wave -iii-. We should be moving sharply higher now in wave $iii$ of (v) of -iii-.

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                                                                                  

                                                                                        

Lnger term after wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a longterm hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 34.34, closing at 34.36.

 

We expect the GDX to be sharply lower at the opening also.

 

Our scenario is that this drop from the wave ^iii^ of 45.78 is a correction, although we have now exceed our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level which is:

 

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

We need the GDX to turn up soon, otherwise our short term wave ^iv^ analysis is going to be eliminated.  

 

Our next projection for the end of wave ^v^ and wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our alternate bullish triangle count is still valid and is shown in purple in our Daily GDX Chart. This alternate count is still suggesting that we are working on wave ^iii^ and within wave ^iii^, we are working on an expanding and extending wave -iv- bullish triangle, where we are working on a dropping wave $c$.

 

After wave $c$ ends we expect a wave $d$ rally that will be followed by a wave $e$ drop to complete all of wave -iv-. After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v- to complete all of wave ^iii^.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1804.20.

 

It looks like wave ^iv^ is still underway as a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. This correction from the 2077.90 high is getting very deep for a wave ^iv^ correction so we are starting to thinking that something else is going on.

 

What we are sure about is the drop from 2077.90 to the current low of 1804.20 is a corrective pattern, which is suggesting that once it ends, gold will be moving sharply higher again.

 

After wave ^iv^ ends we expect another rally in wave ^v^ of *iii*. Our projected endpoint for all of wave ^v^ and wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as have moved to 23.09.

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high and likely all of wave (ii) at the 21.81 low.

 

If this count is correct then silver is now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii). Within wave (iii) it looks like wave -i- ended at 24.55 and wave -ii- at 22.63. If that is the case then we should be rallying sharply in wave -iii-.

 

Like gold we are starting to think that silver may be doing something else and that a drop back to the 21.81 low may be in the cards, before this corrective pattern ends.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.37.

 

A break and sharp move above 24.43 would be a good sign for the bulls. Next major resistance is 26.00/26.10 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield market moved sideways in yesterday’s and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.868{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We have finally reached our minimum projection for the completion of wave -c- and ^ii^ at the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We have also reached our retracement zone for wave ^ii^., which is:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3589.81. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 24 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it now complete at the 3233.94 low. It was a rare failure low.

 

It now may be possible that all of .v. and -iii- are complete at the 3645.99 high, even though we are still a bit short of our projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave -iii- is complete and that a wave -iv- drop is about to begin. Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.                                                                                        

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 92.80. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 92.12, although after that low was made we moved higher again to currently be trading at the 92.39 level.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iv* is now complete at the 94.80 high and we are therefore now falling in wave *v*. Our next projected endpoint for end of wave *v* and all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2420oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 43.75.

 

We have adopted our alternate count that is suggesting that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i0 = 93.96.  

 

Our only concern with our current wave (ii) low is that it was very shallow, although the 6.50 or -40 low was a bit of an aberration in trading.

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew