nov 27 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was higher during the last 2 trading sessions reaching a high of 748.33, closing at 746.17.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 665.81 low, and if it is then we should now be moving higher as shown in the Daily CDNX Chart.

 

It could still be possible that wave (iv) is still underway as an expanding and extending bullish triangle. For this bullish triangle alternate to remain valid we cannot trade below the 665.81 low. Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv) are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 681.63;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 634.32.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect another rally in wave (v) to complete all of wave -iii-. We should be moving sharply higher now in wave $iii$ of (v) of -iii-.

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                                                                                  

                                                                                        

Longer term after wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720gdx.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Wednesday’s trading session reaching a high of 34.24, closing at 34.04.

 

We are still sticking with our idea that this drop from the wave ^iii^ of 45.78 is a correction, although we have now exceeded our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level which is:

 

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

Our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} correction level is”

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 32.54.

 

We need the GDX to turn up soon, otherwise our short term wave ^iv^ analysis is going to be eliminated. The drop from 45.78 to the current low of 33.25 is corrective, which suggests that once this correction ends the GDX is going sharply higher again. 

 

We are now considering the possibility that all of wave ^i^ of 3 ended at the 45.78 high and the current sharp corrective drop is wave ^ii^.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave ^v^ and wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our alternate bullish triangle count is still valid and is shown in purple in our Daily GDX Chart. This alternate count is still suggesting that we are working on wave ^iii^ and within wave ^iii^, we are working on an expanding and extending wave -iv- bullish triangle, where we are working on a dropping wave $c$. After wave $c$ ends we expect a wave $d$ rally that will be followed by a wave $e$ drop to complete all of wave -iv-. After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v- to complete all of wave ^iii^.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Wednesday’s day session reaching a high of 1816.90. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1790.30.

 

It looks like wave ^iv^ is still underway as a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. This correction from the 2077.90 high is getting very deep for a wave ^iv^ correction so we are starting to thinking that something else is going on.

 

What we are sure about is the drop from 2077.90 to the current low of 1804.20 is a corrective pattern, which is suggesting that once it ends, gold will be moving sharply higher again.

 

We are now thinking that perhaps all of wave ^i^ ended at the 2077.90 high and that the current corrective drop is wave ^ii^, or that wave ^iii^ is subdividing further which would mean that all of wave $i$ of ^iii^ ended at the 2077.90 and we are now falling in wave $ii$ of ^iii^. Retracements levels for wave $ii$ in this option would be:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1826.00;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.70.

 

After wave ^iv^ ends we expect another rally in wave ^v^ of *iii*. Our projected endpoint for all of wave ^v^ and wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in Wednesday’s day session. In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 22.70.

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high and likely all of wave (ii) at the 21.81 low, although we note that this low never did reach our retracement levels which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are starting to think that wave (ii) is still underway and that a drop back to the 21.81 low or more likely our retracement levels is likely.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.37.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in Wednesday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 0.844{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We have finally reached our minimum projection for the completion of wave -c- and ^ii^ at the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We have also reached our retracement zone for wave ^ii^., which is:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 moved sideways in Wednesday’s trading session. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are higher by about 10 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it now complete at the 3233.94 low. It was a rare failure low.

 

It now may be possible that all of .v. and -iii- are complete at the 3645.99 high, even though we are still a bit short of our projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave -iii- is complete and that a wave -iv- drop is about to begin. Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.                                                                                        

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Wednesday’s day session reaching a low of 91.83. In the overnight session as we have moved sideways currently trading at 91.95.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iv* is now complete at the 94.80 high and we are therefore now falling in wave *v*. Our next projected endpoint for end of wave *v* and all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2720oi.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Wednesday’s day session reaching a high of 46.26. In the overnight, we moved lower reaching a low of 44.46.

 

We have adopted our alternate count that is suggesting that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i0 = 93.96.  

 

Our only concern with our current wave (ii) low is that it was very shallow, although the 6.50 or -40 low was a bit of an aberration in trading.

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                      

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew