NOV 29 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 937.86, closing at 944.05.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- may be finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

It now looks like all of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- is complete at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 936.85;

61.8% = 915.86.

 

We are getting very close to our 50% retracement level so we need to be guard for the completion of wave $ii$ and the start of a sharp rally higher in wave $iii$

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation:  Go long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 31.64, closing at 32.12.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- ended at 30.96, and if that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave -iii-, which an initial endpoint for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Within wave -iii-, it now looks like all of wave ^i^ ended at the 35.08 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% =31.84.

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level and we do not want to fall very much lower for our current analysis to remain valid. We need to be guard for the completion of wave ^ii^ and the start of another rally in wave ^iii^. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 31.64 low.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov29gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1816.30, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1778.60.

 

In the overnight session as we moved higher reaching a high of 1801.60.

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

In a surprising but very bullish development it now looks like all of wave .d. is complete at the 1879.50 high. You may recall that last week we had suggested that a possible projection for the end of wave .d was:

 

^c^ = ^a^ = 1882.10.

 

It appears that wave .d. ended at 1879.50.

 

Why would we say that gold dropping $50 is a bullish development? The reason is that with wave .d. not ending much sooner than we had thought we are now falling in wave .e., which is the final leg is this long drawn out wave -iv- correction.

 

After wave .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

 

A likely place for wave .e. to end would be on our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Wave .e. has already satisfied its minimum condition, and maybe be complete at the 1777.40 low, so we need to be on guard for the completion of all of this wave -iv- bullish triangle at any time now. Bulls should be using the setback to add or go long gold.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnjov2921si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 22.92. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 23.70!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

It now looks likes wave -ii- is still underway as it has become an irregular type correction as shown on the Daily Silver Chart. We are now dropping in wave $c$ which has a minimum target of the wave $a$ low of 23.05. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii- at the 22.92 low and are now waiting for conformation that it is complete at that low.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921bond.png

 

 Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield were sharply lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1.473%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.552%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave flat correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which looks to have become an double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily US 10 year Bond Yield Chart. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *b* is complete at the 1.693% high we are now starting to move lower in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.

 

Longer term our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was sharply lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 4585.43. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 38 points!

 

We are now thinking that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v).

 

It could be possible that all of wave (v) and v are now complete at the 4743.83 high and if that is the case then the multi-decade bull market is COMPLETE!

 

We will give this market another day or so to see where we go!                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 96.01. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 96.36!

 

We will now be adopting our alternate count as preferred which is suggesting that all of wave (i) of iii ended at 89.17 and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels: retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the possible completion of wave (ii) at the 98.94 high. After wave (ii) ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave (iii).

 

We are now short this market risking to 99.00.

                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Go Short risking to 99.00.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 99.00! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921oil.png   

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 67.40.

 

In the overnight session we have moved sharply higher reaching a high of 72.14.

 

It now looks like all of wave I is complete at the 85.41 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave ii, which has the following retracement levels;

 

50% = 45.96;

61.8% = 36.64.

 

We expect much lower prices over the next couple of months.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We expect lower prices ahead as wave -ii- develops.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew