NOV 29 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Note the Major Count Changes in Gold, Silver and the GDX!

 

 

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2920gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of high of 1776.50, closing at 1788.10.

                                                                          

We mentioned in the last number of Daily Post that the drop in gold was getting too deep for a wave ^iv^ level correction.

 

The depth of the current drop is more like a wave ^ii^ correction, so we have undated our current count to suggest that wave *iii* is now subdividing with all of wave ^i^ of *iii* ending at the 2077.90 high.

 

We are now dipping lower in the final corrective subdivisions of wave ^ii^ of *iii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.10;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1694.50.

 

We are still slightly short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we should expect further weakness in gold at least early in the week, until we drop into our retracement zone for all of wave ^ii^.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^.

 

We have updated our Weekly Gold Chart accordingly.

 

Our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.  

 

We plan to add to our long gold if we touch 1735.00!!       

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops, and will add at 1735.00!  

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2920si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 22.40, closing at 22.64.

                                                                  ,

We now believe that wave ii of 3 is still underway, with the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

The current low within our corrective wave ii is 21.81, which is still short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 20.78, so we should expect further weakness in sliver at least early next week, before all of wave ii ends.

 

After wave ii ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii. We have updated our Weekly Silver Chart accordingly.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We plan to add to our long silver positions at 19.50!!

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop, and will add at 19.50!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield moved sideways this past week closing at 0.842{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

Within our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. It has taken a while but we did finally reach our minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} this week, and we are now waiting for confirmation at all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a sharp drop in rates in wave ^iii^, which should see rates go below zero.  

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2920oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 46.26, closing at 45.53.                               

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low.

 

If that is the case then we should expect a very sharp rally in crude in wave (iii) that has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96!

 

We are still concerned about how shallow our wave (ii) correction was so we still cannot rule the possibility that wave (ii) is going to become much more complex then just a simple 3 wave pattern.  

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2920sun.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 18.03, closing at 17.25.

 

It looks like wave i ended at 21.73 and all of a very deep wave ii correction ended at 10.67.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave iii.

 

We will give this market and crude more time to be sure, but our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!  Subs can choose other big name oil stocks, but the Captain has done work with Suncor, and is comfortable with it. 

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2920sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching a high of 3644.31, closing at 3638.35.  

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .iii. at the 3588.11 high, and all of wave .iv. as a failure 3233.94. Our current high for wave .v is 3545.99, which is a bit short of our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

We are thinking that all of wave -iii- may be complete at the 3645.99 high and if that is the case then we are now starting to fall in wave -iv-. Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

We will provide those levels when we believe that all of wave -iii- is complete.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2920usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 91.74, closing at 91.80.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.

 

Within wave -iii-, it looks like all of wave *iii* ended at the 91.75 low and all of wave *iv* did end at the 94.80 high. We continue to drop in wave *v* of -iii-, although we have now reached our projected endpoint. Wave -iii- could extend lower or we may be getting close to the start of our wave -iv- rally.

 

Gold and the USDX feel together this past week which is unusual.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2920cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 749.82, closing at 749.20.  This is a very resilient market… considering how weak the GDX and gold and silver have been!!

 

We are still working on wave -iii- of .i., and within wave -iii- it now looks like wave (iv) is now complete at the 665.61 low. We should now be rallying in wave (v) of -iii- which has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                           

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. 

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ewnov2920gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week, reaching 33.25, closing at 34.23.

 

Like gold, we did mention a number of times this week that the deep drop in the GDX was likely not a wave ^iv^.

 

As you can see in our Weekly GDX we now believe 3 is subdividing with all of wave *i* of 3 ended at the 45.78 high and that we are correcting in wave *ii* of 3, which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

The current low for this correction is 33.25, which is still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, which is suggesting a bit more weakness in this market next week.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii* of 3!

 

Our updated projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

We plan to add to our long positions at 29.75!  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and will add to the GDX at 29.75!!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

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