NOV 7 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1758.50, but after that low as made we moved higher reaching a high of 1820.10, closing at 1816.80!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and we are falling in an ongoing lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave .c. at 1675.90 low and we are rallying in wave .d..

 

Wave .d., looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave ^b^ ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

We are rallying in wave ^c^ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We finally clearly broke and closed decisively above the purple downtrend line connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90. We also had a key weekly reversal higher this week, which is bullish!

 

It turned out wave ^c^ looks to have become an impulsive sequence with all f wave $i$ ending at the 1815.50 high and all of wave $ii$ at the 1758.50 low.

 

If that is the case we are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^c^, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1911.20.

 

Next big resistance will be the 1835/1840 level, which we expect to break through next week, as gold move higher.

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.         

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 23.05 but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 24.25!  

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41. We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We reached our 24.94 resistance level and it looks like all of wave -i- of iii ended at the 24.92 low and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which is not complete at the 23.05 high.

 

WE are rallying in wave -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 28.73.

 

Note the completed head and shoulder bottoming formation on the Daily Silver Chart.

 

We expect higher prices next week, as head back to the neckline.                                            

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1.450, closing at 1.453%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades, we are rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.691% high.

 

Note the ending diagonal triangle formation that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart which we have now decisively broke below the lower trend line connecting 1.463% and 1.507%.

 

We expect lower prices now as we fall in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low.

 

We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was lower this past week reaching a low of 78.25, closing at 81.27!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, with our wave (iv) bullish triangle ended at the 69.39 low, as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

We are thrusting higher in wave (v), which see a run to the $90/95 level below it ends.

 

Next major resistance is the 91.24 level.

 

We have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for completed wave (v) based on price, but the internal wave structure is still not complete at the 85.41 high, so we expect higher prices lie ahead before all of wave i ends. After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721su.png  

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 25.11 but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 2697, closing at 26.52!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We are on the verge of a major breakout as shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart. We expect much higher prices in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher again this past week reaching another all-time high of 4718.50, closing at 4697.53!

 

It appears unlikely now that all of wave (iii) ended at the 4545.85 high as the drop off that high to 4278.97 was likely too shallow to be all of wave (iv).

 

It could be that we are still extending higher in wave (iii). We will take another look and provide a further update in Monday’s Morning Post.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721us.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 93.64, closing at 94.32!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.64 high.

 

Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid.

 

After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81! 

 

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 990.64, closing at 985.14!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

We still expect higher prices again next week as wave -iii- gets going higher, although we still have some previous resistance levels to get through.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower this past week, reaching a low of 30.96 although after that low was made we moved nicely higher…

 

 Reaching a high of 32.75 and… closing on the high of 32.75!

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and if that is the case then we are rallying in wave *iii*, which ash the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

It looks like all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii is now complete at the 33.95 high and we now falling in wave -ii-, which is complete at the 30.96 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii- which has initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Note that the right shoulder of our head and shoulders bottoming formation is basically complete.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                          

 

We do have higher targets also!

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching a high of 64239 although we closed lower at 61248!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low.

 

We are rallying in wave (b) which looks to be complete at the 66981 high.

 

We should now be falling in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction, as opposed to a simple zigzag.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew