oct 1 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct120cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was initially marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 713.83, although we closed lower at 706.51.

 

In the longer term we continue to work on wave -iii- of .i.. In the shorter term we are still working on wave (iv) of -iii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 684.48;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 636.63

 

We have now entered our retracement zone so we now need to be on guard for the completion of wave (iv) and the start of another rally in wave (v) of -iii-. We are now waiting for confirmation that it is complete at 665.41 low.

 

A strong break and close above the wave $a$ low of 709.39 would be a first sign that our wave (iv) correction is complete at the 665.41 low. Our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct120gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct120gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 38.56, closing at 39.16.

 

We continue to correct in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

Wave ^iv^ is now a 3 wave corrective pattern. We have now entered our above noted retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave ^iv^ and the start of another sharp rally in wave ^v^.

 

We did break and close above the wave -a- low of 38.88 which is a first good sign that wave ^iv^ may be complete at the 37.08 low.

 

It looks like we successfully tested the breakout above the wave -a- low of 38.88.

 

We should move higher today!  

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct120gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1908.10, although we closed the day session lower.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher again reaching a high of 1914.40!

 

Wave ^iv^ continues to develop although we have now dropped below our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}= 1874.80.

 

The drop from the 2077.90 high to the current low of 1851.00 is clearly a corrective pattern, but it might not be a wave ^iv^, due to the depth of the retracement. It looks more like a wave $ii$.

 

We have shown a possible very bullish alternate count for gold that is suggesting that we are still rallying in a subdividing wave ^iii^ where only wave $i$ ended at the 2077.90 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1826.70;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.70.

 

For the time being will stay with our current count that is suggesting that wave ^iv^ should be ending very soon, if it has not already done so at the 1852.00 low. We have broken and closed above the wave $a$ low of 1874.20, which is a first good sign for the bulls.

 

We also had a key daily reversal higher in Monday’s trading session, which is another good sign for the end of wave ^iv^ or $ii$ at the 1852.00 low.

 

After wave $c$ and all of wave ^iv^ ends we expect gold to start rallying again in wave ^v^. Should gold continue to drop then we will likely move to our alternate count.

 

Wave ^v^ and all of wave *iii* have a current projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct120soi.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 23.24. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 24.05.  

 

We are now decided to adopt our very bullish alternate count with is suggesting that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high and likely all of wave (ii) at the 21.81 low. If this count is correct then silver is now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii). We will give this market account more days before we provide our first projection for the end of wave (iii).

 

Our only concern with the new count is that the current low of 21.53 is still a bit short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels which for wave (ii) are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We have now broken above the wave *a* low of 23.58 which is a first good sign for the bulls and in yesterday’s trading session it looks like we successfully tested that breakout. We should move higher from here.

 

If this revised count in silver is the correct analysis, then likely our alternate count in gold is also going to be correct.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct120bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 0.705{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct120spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct120sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3393.56. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are sharply higher by about 33 points!

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed wave .iii. of -iii- of  (iii) at the 3568.88 high and we are now falling in wave .iv., although this retracement has now exceeded 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} which is pretty deep for a wave .iv. correction.

 

We cannot drop below the wave .i. high of 3153.55 for our current analysis to remain valid, so we need to continue to move higher. Wave .iv. could still become more complex and perhaps even a bullish triangle, although the break of our red downtrend line is a good sign for the bullish case.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.                        

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct120usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 93.57.

 

A sharp break below the 93.57 low will send this market lower!

 

We continue to fall in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

We continue to rally in wave *iv* of -iii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

We have entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iv* and the start of another drop in wave *v* of -iii-. Wave *iv* may now be complete at the 94.80 high, and if that is the case this high might coincide with the lows in gold, silver, CDNX and the GDX.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc120oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend high has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 40.45.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave (i) ended at the 21.73 high and we are now falling in wave (ii) which has now exceeded for 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Our last retracement level for wave (ii) is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 12.20.

 

We do not want to drop much below that level, otherwise we think Suncor will be heading back to the 9.61 low.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                       

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew