OCT 10 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021gold.png

 

Jobs Report Analysis:

On the Intraday Chart, gold and silver have completed 5 wave impulsive rallies form their recent lows.

 

For gold the five wave rally ran from 1721.00 to 1782.40. The current sell-off is a correction of the first impulsive sequence higher. Retracement levels are:

 

50% = 1751.80;

61.8% = 1744.50.

 

For silver the five wave rally ran from 21.41 to 23.22. The current sell-off is a correction of the first impulsive sequence higher. Retracement levels are:

 

50% = 22.32;

61.8% = 22.10.

 

On the Intraday Chart for the GDX: we completed our third wave within a developing impulsive sequence which started at the 28.83 low at today’s high of 31.35. We are now correcting in small 4th wave.

 

In general, despite of the sell-off after the rally this am coming from the weak US Employment Report… gold, silver and the GDX should be heading higher after this small corrections end, likely this week!

 

 

Long Term Update For Gold:

 

Gold moved mostly sideways this past week, until Friday working where we spiked higher reaching a high of 1782.40, but by the close we had closed slightly lower on the week at 1757.40. 

 

A lot of action!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in an ongoing lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *d*. Wave *d*, looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to move higher again in wave $c$ of *d*.

 

Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 1721.0 to Friday’s high of 1782.40 looks to be a completed 5 wave impulsive sequence.

 

The drop from the 1782.40 high is the correction of the that five-wave rally.

 

We hope to provide our retracement levels for that correction in Monday’s Morning post.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

Of course, this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Alternate count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this past week reaching a high of 23.22, closing at 22.70!  

                                                                  

All of wave i of 3 ended at 29.91, so we over the last many months we have been correcting in wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

The current low of 21.41 is still a bit short of our 50% retracement level, but the way this market appears to be trading it is looks likely that the 21.41 low was the end of the wave ii correction.

 

We see how this market trades next week to confirm my observation.

 

After wave ii ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii and we will provide our initial projections for its completion when we believe all of wave ii is complete.

 

This count is actually much more bullish then our previous wave (iv) bullish triangle was.                                           

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long from 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.617%, closing at 1.605%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we appear, shockingly, to be rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive, and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We are currently thinking that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all or most of wave *b* at the 1.617% high. If that is the case we should soon be falling in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc10oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 80.11, closing at 79.35!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, with our wave (iv) bullish triangle ended at the 69.39 low, as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

We are now thrusting higher in wave (v), which should see a run to the $90/95 level below it ends.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for completed wave (v) based on price, but the internal wave structure is still not complete at the 80.11 high, so wee expect higher prices lie ahead, before all of wave i end.

 

After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 23.17, closing at 23.10!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 17.10 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We expect much higher in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                           

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 4278.94, but we closed higher at 4391.34!

 

We know think that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85 high and we are now starting to fall in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

The SP500 was very choppy this week, but we still expect it move lower in wave (iv). It is too early to say what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will turn into.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways this past week, closing just marginally higher at 94.08!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.52 high.

 

Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid.

 

After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81! 

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways this past week, although we closed higher at 877.48!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction just does not want to seem to come to an end as we made a new low within this corrective pattern this week.

 

We are  still waiting for confirmation that all of our current wave -ii- of .iii. correction is finally complete, at the 847.92 low.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 31.36, closing at 30.67!

 

We continue to wait for confirmation that our lengthy and complex wave *ii* of -3- correction is finally complete at the 28.83 low.

 

We have satisfied all of our minimum conditions for the completion of all of wave *ii* at this low.

 

This week we rallied back to the upper trend line of ending diagonal triangle formation and also challenged horizontal support at the 30.64/30.68 level.

 

We need to break and close above both of resistance levels to confirm at all of wave *ii* is compete the 28.83 low, and that our sharp wave *iii* is finally starting. We think this will happen this week.

 

If you believe in higher gold prices, gold stocks are all on sale at these prices.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021gdx.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 56048, closing at 55243!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low. This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

We continue to rally higher in wave (b), which has our last retracement level as:

 

78.6% = 57166.

 

After wave (b) ends we still expect on more drop in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 of B, and then the glorious C wave higher begins!!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew