OCT 18 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc1820gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was marginally higher this past week, reaching a high of 1939.40, although we closed lower at 1906.40.

                                                                          

As we continued to mention during most of this Week’s Daily Posts, the depth of this wave ^iv^ correction has now exceeded our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement, with the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level being:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1827.00.

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 1851.00 low, although we have shown our alternate extending wave ^iii^ wave count on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

If wave ^iv^ is not complete at the 1851.00 low then the next big move in gold will a sharp rally in wave ^v^.  This next rally in gold will complete all of wave *iii*, which that following initial projected endpoint:            

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also. If gold decides to drop then we will adopt our alternate extending wave ^iii^ count as our preferred.          

                              

Active Positions: Long, with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc1820si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 25.71, although we closed lower at 24.41.

                                                                  ,

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave i of 3 ended at the 29.91 high and all of wave ii at the 21.81 low although we are still short of 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

If wave ii is now complete then we should be starting a very sharp rally in wave iii.  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a low of 0.693{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 0744{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

With our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We now think that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex and believe that a rally back to the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high should be expected before all of wave ^ii^ ends. Within wave ^ii^, wave -b- ended at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are now rallying in wave -c-, which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, before it ends.  

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc1820oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude moved sideways this past week, closing at 41.12.                                                                                      

 

Wave (i) is now complete at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We should expect a least a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave (ii). We probably completed wave $a$ at the 36.13 low and we likely now rallying in wave $b$. After wave $b$ ends we should see another drop in wave $c$ to complete the 3 wave correction. The other option is that we are still working on our wave $a$ drop.  

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc1820su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 11.80, closing at 11.88.

 

For the time being we still believe that Suncor may have made multidecade low in wave B at the 9.61 low, and if that is the case we are now rallying in initial stages of a multiple year wave C.

 

In the short term we completed wave (i) at the 19.16 and for our current analysis to remain valid then all of wave (ii) ended at the 11.11 low. We should therefore now be starting to rally sharply in wave (iii). We will give the market more time before we provide our updated first projection for the end of wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc1820sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 3549.85, closing at 3483.81.  

 

We still believe we are rallying in an incomplete wave -iii- of (iii) that has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .iii. at the 3588.11 high and all of a deep wave .iv. correction at the 3209.45 low. We should now be rallying in wave .v. of -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of 3710.44.

 

The minimum target for the end of wave .v. and -iii- is the wave .iii. high of 3588.11. 

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc1820usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 93.93, closing at 93.68.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.

 

Within wave -iii-, it looks like all of wave *iii* ended at the 91.75 low and we are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iv* is complete at the 94.80. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *v* of -iii-.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc1820cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 737.95, but we closed lower at 725.31.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-of .i., and within wave -iii- we are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 665.61 low. We should now be starting to rally in wave (v) of -iii-, with wave -iii- having a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                                  

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 382.{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. 

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc20gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 41.34, although we closed marginally lower at 39.83.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^iv^ is now complete at the 37.08 low and that we started to rally higher again in wave ^v^.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^v^ and 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Next significant resistance at the 51.67 level.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks.