oct 21 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EWOCT2120CDNX.png

 

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 710.37, closing at 712.66.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) of -iii- of .i. is now complete at the 665.41 low and we are now rallying in wave (v). Our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

 

Our next resistance level is 760/765. After breaking that level we should start to accelerate higher. Wave (iv) could still become more complex, but for now we will leave that as a possible alternate count.

                                                                                           

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold! 

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EWOC2120GDX60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EWOC2120GDXD.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 38.97, but we closed higher at 39.46.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 37.08 low in which case we are now starting to rally higher in wave ^v^. Next resistance will be the red down trendline connecting 45.78 and 43.60. Our next projection for the end of wave ^v^ and wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We now want to bring your attention to an interesting alternate count shown in purple in our Daily GDX Chart. This alternate count is suggesting that we are still working on wave ^iii^ and within wave ^iii^, we are about to complete a very large bullish wave -iv- triangle.

 

The end of that triangle could have occurred at the 38.97 low. If this count is correct, then after this bullish wave -iv triangle ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave -v- to complete all of wave ^iii^.

 

More details on the projected endpoint of wave ^iii^ if this count becomes our preferred.

 

A break of the upper purple trendline would be a very good first indication that this alternate count would become our preferred.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EWOC2120GOLD.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1926.80. 

 

Our preferred count is that all of wave ^iv^ ended at the 1851.00 low. Our concern with that count is that the wave ^iv^ retracement was very deep. Having said that is wave ^iv^ ended at the 1851.00 low then we are now rallying in wave ^v^ and all of wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We are now considering two alternate counts. Our new preferred alternate count is shown in purple on our Daily Gold Chart and in this count wave ^iii^ is still underway and within wave ^iii^, we completed wave $iii$ at the 2077.90 high and are about to complete a wave ^iv^ bullish triangle.

 

 

 

This bullish triangle could be complete at the 1896.60 low. If that is the case then gold is about the thrust sharply higher in wave $v$ of ^iii^. Gold is starting to move above the upper purple trendline of this triangle as this updates is being written. This alternate count matches our alternate GDX count.

 

Our second alternate is shown in red on our Daily Gold Chart and suggest that only wave $i$ of ^iii^ ended at the 2077.90 high and all of wave $ii$ at the 1851.00 low. In this case we are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^iii^.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EWOC2120SI.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 25.28.   

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high and likely all of wave (ii) at the 21.81 low. If this count is correct then silver is now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii). Our first projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.37.

 

Next resistance 26.00/26.10 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EWOC2120BOND.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 0.836{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EWOC2120SPD.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020OC2120SP120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3476.93. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are lower by about 3 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed a very deep wave .iv. of -iii- of (iii) correction at the 3209.45 low and we should now be rallying in wave .v.. Wave .iv. could still become more complex and perhaps even a bullish triangle, but for now will assume that it is complete. Our minimum target for the completion of wave .v. and -iii- is the wave .iii. high of 3568.88.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave .v. and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

After wave -iii- ends we should expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.                                                                                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EWOC2120USD.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 92.67.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iv* is now complete at the 94.80 high and we are therefore now falling in wave *v*. Our next projected endpoint for end of wave *v* and all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

The end of wave *iv* may coincide with the lows in gold, silver, CDNX and the GDX.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EWOC2120OIL.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 41.90. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 40.86.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave (i) ended at the 21.73 high and we are now falling in wave (ii) which has now exceeded for 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Our last retracement level for wave (ii) is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 12.20.

 

We must continue to rally higher from here for our current count to remain valid, otherwise Suncor is heading back to at least the 9.61 low.   

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew