OCT 24 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold moved higher this past week reaching a high of 1815.50, closing at 1796.30!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in an ongoing lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave *d*.

 

Wave *d*, looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ ending at the 1721.10 low. We are now rallying in wave $c$ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We attempted our big breakout last next week, trying to close above the red downtrend line connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90, and we closed right on that line!

 

We expect the cleanly break through and close above that line next week.

 

We also note that on the Intraday Chart the rally from 1721.10 to 1815.50 looks to be a completed 5 wave impulsive with our bullish triangle ending at 1776.90 and possibly our thrust at 1815.50.

 

It is still possible that our thrust leg could extend much higher before all of this impulsive sequence ends. If we are now correcting that impulsive sequence then we should expect gold to be weaker early next week, before moving shapely higher again, after this correction ends.

 

This correction should coincide with the possible correction we could start to see in the GDX (See below).

 

Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Alternate count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.          

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 24.92, closing at 24.45!  

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41. We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We got our big breakout higher last week and are now challenging the 24.94 resistance level.

 

We may be getting close to completing wave -i- of iii, possibly at the 24.92 high, and after it ends we expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -I- rally.                    

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.691%, closing at 1.655%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.691% high. Not the ending diagonal triangle formation that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

We also had a key daily reversal lower in Friday’s trading. A break below the lower trend line of our ending diagonal triangle formation connecting 1.463% and 1.507% will confirm that all of wave *b* ended at the 1.691% high.

 

After wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 84.22, closing at 83.76!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, with our wave (iv) bullish triangle ended at the 69.39 low, as shown on our Daily Crude Chart. We are now thrusting higher in wave (v), which see a run to the $90/95 level below it ends. Next resistance is the 91.24 level.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for completed wave (v) based on price, but the internal wave structure is still not complete at the 84.22 high, so we expect higher prices lie ahead before all of wave i ends.

 

After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 22.40, closing at 22.86!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We expect much higher in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher this past week reaching another all-time high of 4559.67, closing at 4544.90!

 

We sthink that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85 high and we are now starting to fall in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It looks like wave (iv) has become a flat or irregular type correction, although we are still not sure of the exact internal wave structure of this correction.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421us.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 93.47, closing at 93.62!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.57 high.

 

Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid.

 

After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching ahigh of 954.50, closing at 948.84!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

We expect higher prices again next week as wave -iii- gets going higher, although we still have some previous resistance levels to get through.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher again this past week reaching a high of 33.95, closing at 32.99!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which ash the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

We need to be on guard for the possibly that all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii is now complete at the 33.95 high and if that is the case then we should expect a drop in wave -iii- which retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally. expect higher prices next week.

 

Wave -i- could extend higher also, but the GDX had come a low way since the end of wave *ii* occurred at the 28.83 low

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                          

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was initially sharply higher again this past week reaching an all-time high of 66981 although we closed lower at 60399!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly. Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (b) which now looks to be complete at the 66981 high.

 

We should now be falling in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction, as opposed to a simple zigzag.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew