OCT 25 WEEKEND POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2520gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold moved generally sideways this past week, closing almost unchanged at 1905.40.

                                                                          

As we continue to mention, the depth of this wave ^iv^ correction has now exceeded our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement, with the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level being:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1827.00.

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 1851.00 low, although we have now introduced another alternate count that is suggesting that we are still working on an extending wave ^iii^.

 

In this alternate we believe that wave $iii$ of ^iii^ ended at 2077.90 and the current drop is a bullish wave $iv$ triangle that could be on the verge of completion.

 

If this count is correct then gold is above the thrust sharply higher in wave $v$ of ^iii. Our second alternate count is shown in red on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Although we are having doubts about our current preferred count, if it is correct then then we should be rallying in wave ^v^ of *iii*, which that following initial projected endpoint:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

                                                                                    

We do have higher projections also.           

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2520ai.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Silver moved generally sideways this past week, although we closed higher at 24.67.

                                                                  ,

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave i of 3 ended at the 29.91 high and all of wave ii at the 21.81 low although we are still short of 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

If wave ii is now complete then we should be starting a very sharp rally in wave iii.  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 0.872{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 0.841{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

With our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We now think that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex and believe that a rally back to the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high should be expected before all of wave ^ii^ ends.

 

Within wave ^ii^, wave -b- ended at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are now rallying in wave -c-, which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, before it ends.  

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2520oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was lower this past week reaching a low of 39.57, closing at 39.85.                                                                                      

 

Wave (i) is now complete at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We should expect a least a 3wave corrective pattern within wave (ii). We probably completed wave $a$ at the 36.13 low and we likely now rallying in wave $b$. After wave $b$ ends we should see another drop in wave $c$ to complete the 3 wave correction. The other option is that we are still working on our wave $a$ drop.  

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2520su.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 11.30, although we closed higher at 12.53.

 

For the time being we still believe that Suncor may have made multidecade low in wave B at the 9.61 low, and if that is the case we are now rallying in initial stages of a multiple year wave C.

 

In the short term we completed wave (i) at the 19.16 and for our current analysis to remain valid then all of wave (ii) ended at the 11.11 low. We should therefore now be starting to rally sharply in wave (iii). We will give the market another couple of days before we provided our updated first projection for the end of wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2520sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower this past week reaching a low of 3415.34, closing at 3465.39.  

 

We still believe we are rallying in an incomplete wave -iii- of (iii) that has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .iii. at the 3588.11 high and all of a deep wave .iv. correction at the 3209.45 low. We should now be rallying in wave .v. of -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of 3710.44. The minimum target for the end of wave .v. and -iii- is the wave .iii. high of 3588.11. 

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2520usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 92.46, closing at 92.76.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.

 

Within wave -iii-, it looks like all of wave *iii* ended at the 91.75 low and we are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iv* is complete at the 94.80. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *v* of -iii-.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2520cdnx.png  

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 706.32, closing at 718.13.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-of .i., and within wave -iii- we are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 665.61 low. We should now be starting to rally in wave (v) of -iii-, with wave -iii- having a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

 

We noted a possible head and shoulders bottoming formation on the daily CDNC Chart which could be suggesting higher prices lie ahead.                                                                 

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 382.{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. 

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2520gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 38.47, closing at 38.82.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^iv^ is now complete at the 37.08 low and that we started to rally higher again in wave ^v^, although we have now introduced a very bullish alternate count that is suggesting we are still working on wave ^iii^.

 

Within wave ^iii^, wave -iii- ended at 37.49 and we are nearing completion of a very large bullish wave -iv- triangle that count be complete at the 38.47 low. If that is the case we should start to thrust sharply higher in wave -v- of ^iii^, after the wave -iv- bullish triangle ends.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^v^ and 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Next significant resistance at the 51.67 level.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks.