OCT 27 morning post!

Captain will be in Calgary from Tuesday to Thursday this week. No post on Thursday due to early flight back home.

 

Our Stockcharts Charts could not be updated for this posting, due to technical issues with the chart provider, but the commentary is current.

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 966.57 although we closed lower at 956.33!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between these current levels and 1000. Next resistance is 971.60, then 982.22.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading reaching a low of 33.02, closing at 33.25.

 

We have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^. Within wave ^i^ we are working on wave -i- which could be complete at the 33.95 high. If that is the case then we should expect a wave -ii- drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 31.39;

61.8% = 30.79.

 

It still might be possible that wave -i- could extend a little higher before it ends also.

 

Note that a drop in the GDX now will create the final leg of a head and shoulder bottoming formation on as shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1783.00. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1795.30 level.

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., we are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

Last Friday we got our thrust to the 1815.50 high and then sold off.

 

On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a five wave impulsive sequence from 1721.10 to the 1815.50 high.

 

We could still extend higher within this impulsive sequence, but if we do not then we should expect a correction that retraces as follows:

 

50% = 1768.30;

61.8% = 1757.20.

 

In yesterday’s trading we did drop to a low of 1783.00, which is still above our 50% retracement level for all of this possible correction, so we doubt it is complete at the 1783.00 low, but from an Ewave pattern point of view on the Intraday Chart we have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed 3 corrective drop from 1815.50 to yesterday’s low of 1783.00

 

Its just that our retracement was short of our 50% level. We could start moving higher from here.

 

Also we did break and close above our red down trendline connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90, which may be suggesting that this impulsive sequence is now extending higher with a target of the 1836.00/1837.00 neckline, before it ends.

 

Longer term, after wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 23.90!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii, although it may be complete at the 24.92 high. If that is the case then we are now correcting in wave -ii- which ash the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75!

 

We expect lower prices for most of this week as wave -ii- unfolds, although like gold and the GDX, the final leg within wave -i- may extend a bit higher before it ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1.590%!  Our short position could be a winner!!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.705% high. Note the potential almost completed ending diagonal triangle on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Chart. A break of the lower red trendline connecting 1.453% and 1.507% will confirm that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high.

 

We also had a key daily reversal lower in last Friday’s session, which is good news for the bears.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short again risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short again risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session as we reached another all-time high at 4598.53. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 2 points.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

We will need to give this market a few more days to see which corrective pattern it has now become. We still think wave .a. ended at the 4305.91 low and that the current rally is a wave .b..

 

After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).

 

After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach or exceed the previous all-time high. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 94.02. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 93.86 level.

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may finally be complete at the 94.57 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Go Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 83.80 level!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.

 

Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew