OCT 29 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020oc29cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 676.63, closing at 677.93.

 

The sharp drop in the CNDX is likely now suggesting that wave (iv) is not complete at the 665.41 low and is becoming more complex and likely a double 3 wave patterns as shown on the daily CDNX Chart. Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv) are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 681.63;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 634.32.

 

Wave (iii) likely ended at the 758.11 high. We should now be working on our second wave $c$ that has a minimum target of 665.41, which is the low of our second wave $a$. There is also an outside chance that wave (iv) is becoming a bullish triangle, but for this alternative to remain valid we need to stay above the 665.61 low.

 

After wave (iv) ends we still expect another rally in wave (v) to complete all of wave -iii-.

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

                                                                                                                 

For many weeks now we have also been saying this: “Wave (iv) could still become more complex, but for now we will leave that as a possible alternate count.”

                                                                                           

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2920gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2920gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 36.34, closing at 36.52.

 

It appears that wave ^iv^ is still underway and has become much more complex that we had originally thought, as shown on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^iv^ are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

We should now be falling in wave -c- of that complex pattern. Once wave ^iv^ ends we still expect another sharp rally higher in wave ^v^. Our next projection for the end of wave ^v^ and wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our alternate bullish triangle count is still valid and is shown in purple in our Daily GDX Chart. This alternate count is suggesting that we are still working on wave ^iii^ and within wave ^iii^, we are working on and expanding and extending wave -iv- that is currently dropping in wave $c$ of that pattern. Once wave $c$ ends we expect a wave $d$ rally that will be followed by a wave $e$ drop to complete the bullish triangle. After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v- to complete all of wave ^iii^.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2920gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1862.20. 

 

Our preferred count is that all of wave ^iv^ ended at the 1851.00 low. Our concern with that count is that the wave ^iv^ retracement was very deep.

 

Having said that if wave ^iv^ ended at the 1851.00 low then we are now rallying in wave ^v^ and all of wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint of:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We are now considering two alternate counts. Our new preferred alternate count is shown in purple on our Daily Gold Chart and in this count wave ^iii^ is still underway and within wave ^iii^, we completed wave $iii$ at the 2077.90 high and are still working on an expanding triangle in a wave ^iv^ bullish triangle.

 

For this alternative to remain valid we cannot trade below the 1851.00 low. This alternate count still matches our alternate bullish triangle GDX count.

 

Our second alternate is shown in red on our Daily Gold Chart and suggests that only wave $i$ of ^iii^ ended at the 2077.90 high and all of wave $ii$ at the 1851.00 low.

 

In this case we are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^iii^.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops!

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2920si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 22.63.  

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high and likely all of wave (ii) at the 21.81 low. If this count is correct then silver is now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii). Our first projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.37.

 

Next resistance 26.00/26.10 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2920bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.769{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2920spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2920sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3268.89. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 11 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed a very deep wave .iv. of -iii- of (iii) correction at the 3209.45 low and we should now be rallying in wave .v.. Wave .iv. could still become more complex and perhaps even a bullish triangle, but for now will assume that it is complete.

 

Our minimum target for the completion of wave .v. and -iii- is the wave .iii. high of 3568.88.

 

The drop from 3549.85 to the current low of 3268.89 is getting pretty deep, although we cannot rule the possibly that wave .iv. is still underway, but as a bullish triangle. For this alternate to remain valid we cannot trade below the 3209.45 low.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave .v. and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

After wave -iii- ends we should expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.                                                                                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2920usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 93.82.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iv* is now complete at the 94.80 high and we are therefore now falling in wave *v*. Our next projected endpoint for end of wave *v* and all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

We are now watching for the possibility that the USDX is still working on wave *iv*, but as a bearish triangle.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc2920oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 35.38.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave (i) ended at the 21.73 high and we are now falling in wave (ii) which has now exceeded for 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Our last retracement level for wave (ii) is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 12.20.

 

We must continue to rally higher from here for our current count to remain valid, otherwise Suncor is heading back to at least the 9.61 low.   

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew