OCT 3 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct321gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1721.10, and then we closed higher, at 1758.40!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and we have been falling in an ongoing length wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *d*. Wave *d*, land ooks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ perhaps finally ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to move higher again in wave $c$ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Alternate count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct321si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 21.41, although we also closed higher at 22.54!  

                                                                  

Our bullish wave (iv) triangle was eliminated this week, and we have updated our count to now suggest that all of wave i of 3 ended at 29.91. If that is the case then we have been correcting in wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

The current low of 21.41 is still a bit short of our 50% retracement level, but with the marker closing higher and above the 21.81 level, it may be possible that all of wave ii is complete at the 21.41 low. We will see how this market trades next week, to confirm that observation.

 

After wave ii ends, we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii and we will provide our initial projections for its completion when we believe all of wave ii is complete.

 

This count is much more bullish then our previous wave (iv) bullish triangle was!                                           

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.567%, but we closed our marginally higher at 1.465%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We are currently thinking that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all or most of wave *b* at the 1.567% high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was higher this past week reaching a high of 76.67, closing at 75.88!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we continue to work on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle all of a complex wave $d$ may have ended at 73.14, and all of wave $e$ at 69.39. If that is the case then all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we should now be thrusting higher in wave (v).

 

The other option is that wave $d$ is still underway as it can rally as high as the wave $b$ high of 76.89 for our current triangle formation to remain valid. If wave $d$ is still underway then after it ends should expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

The size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our larger wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 21.49, closing at 20.96!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (ii) and the start of a sharp wave (iii) rally.

 

We are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 17.10 low and if that is the case then we are starting to rally higher in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 4288.52, closing at 4357.04!

 

We know think that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85 high and we are now starting to fall in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is too early to say what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will turn into.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 94.52, closing at 94.05!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.52 high.

 

Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid. After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 881.35, although we closed lower at 865.88!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction just does not want to seem to come to an end and we made a new low within this corrective pattern this week.

 

We are again waiting for confirmation that all of our current wave -ii- of .iii. correction is finally complete, at the 847.92 low.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 28.83, but did close off those lows at 29.33.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that our lengthy and complex wave *ii* of -3- correction is finally complete at the 28.83 low.

 

We have satisfied all of our minimum conditions for the completion of all of wave *ii* at this low, and have also reached the bottom trendline of our wave ^c^ ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii*.

 

Gold stocks continue to be very undervalued when compared to current price of gold, so either gold prices have to now fall sharply or the GDX has to soon start to rally sharply higher, as extremities in markets do not last too long.

 

If you believe in higher gold prices, and we do, gold stocks are all on sale at these prices!

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                               

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 48470, closing at 47950!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low.

 

This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

It looks like all of wave (b) is now complete at the 52919 high and if that is the case we should now be falling in wave (c), which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 28908.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew