OCT 31 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021oc31gold1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold moved basically sideways this past week although we closed a bit lower at 1783.90.

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in an ongoing lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave *d*.

 

Wave *d*, looks to be turning into a 3wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

We are rallying in wave $c$ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We attempted our ‘big breakout’ last next week, trying to close above the red downtrend line connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90, and we closed right on that line.

 

We still have not cleanly broken through and closed above that line on a weekly basis and…

 

We now have conflicting counts;

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 1721.10 to 1815.50 looks to be a completed 5 wave impulsive with our bullish triangle possibly ending at 1776.90 and possibly our thrust at 1815.50. The thrust leg did not extend higher, so the drop from 1815.50 to the current low of 1772.40 is the correction of that impulsive rally.

 

The other option is that we are working on an expanding and extending bullish triangle that started at the 1745.90 low and did not end at the 1776.90 low. In this option we may have completed 3 out of 5 points of this triangle at 1745.90, 1815.50 and 1772.50. This last point may not be complete at the 1772.50 low also.

 

If that is the case then we should now be rallying the 4th point, although for this triangle to remain valid we cannot rally above the 1815.50 high.

 

After this next rally we expect one more drop that cannot drop below the 1772.50 low. After this extended bullish triangle ends we should expect a very large thrust higher.

 

This thrust may complete all of wave .d.

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121si1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was also lower this past week reaching a low of 23.70, as we projected it would likely be, closing at 23.95.  

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41. We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We reached our 24.94 resistance level and it looks like all of wave -i- of iii ended at the 24.92 low and we are now falling in wave -ii-. We are still a bit short of our 50% retracement level for all of wave -ii- so we expect some further weakness early next week.

 

The wave -ii- correction is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally.                                            

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a low of 1.520, closing at 1.557%.

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.691% high. Note the ending diagonal triangle formation that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We broke below the lower trend line of our ending diagonal triangle formation connecting 1.463% and 1.507% and it looks like we successfully tested that breakdown in Friday’s trading.

 

We expect lower prices now as we fall in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short again risking to 1.770%

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 85.41, although we closed marginally lower at 83.57.

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, with our wave (iv) bullish triangle ended at the 69.39 low, as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

We are now thrusting higher in wave (v), which see a run to the $90/95 level below it ends. Next major resistance is the 91.24 level.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for completed wave (v) based on price, but the internal wave structure is still not complete at the 84.22 high, so we expect higher prices lie ahead before all of wave i ends.

 

After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor ripped aggressively higher this past week, reaching a high of 26.64, closing at 26.30 being up about 15% on the week!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We are on the verge of a major breakout as shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart.

 

We expect much higher prices in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!!                               

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher again this past week reaching another all-time high of 4608.08, closing at 4605.38!

 

We still think that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85 high and we are now starting to fall in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It looks like wave (iv) has become an irregular type correction, although we are still not sure of the exact internal wave structure of this correction.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 93.26, although we closed higher at 94.12!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.57 high. Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid. After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching ahigh of 966.57, closing at 950.48!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

We still expect higher prices again next week as wave -iii- gets going higher, although we still have some previous resistance levels to get through.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 31.80, closing at 31.71!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which ash the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

It looks like all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii is now complete at the 33.95 high and we now falling in wave -ii-.

 

The current low for wave -ii- is still a bit short of our 50 % retracement level so we expect some further weakness early next week before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

Note that we are forming the right shoulder of our head and shoulders bottoming formation now.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching a low of 58128, closing at 60411!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (b) which now looks to be complete at the 66981 high. We should now be falling in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction, as opposed to a simple zigzag.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew