OCT 4 WEEKEND POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct420gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week, reaching a high of 1923.60, closing at 1907.60!

                                                                          

As we continued to mention during most of this Week’s Daily Posts, the depth of this wave ^iv^ correction has now exceeded our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement, with the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level being:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1827.00.

 

For the time being we will assume that we are still working on a wave ^iv^ correction, although further losses next week below the current 1851.00 low would suggest that this drop is likely part of an extending wave ^iii^ rally, which, ironically, would be a very bullish sign!!

 

We have shown the alternate extending wave ^iii^ wave count on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 1851.00 low and that the next big move in gold will a sharp rally higher in wave ^v^.  

 

This next rally in gold will complete all of wave *iii*, which that following initial projected endpoint:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.           

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct420si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this past week reaching a high of 24.55, closing at 24.03.

                                                                  ,

We adopted our alternate count this past week that is suggesting that all of wave i of 3 ended at the 29.91 high and that we are now dropping in wave ii which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we cannot rule the possibility that silver will still be heading lower in wave ii, before it all ends. After wave ii ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii.

 

There is possibility that all of wave ii is complete at the 21.53 low also.  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 0.720, closing at 0.696{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

With our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We now think that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex and believe that a rally back to the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high should be expected before all of wave ^ii^ ends.

 

Within wave ^ii^, wave -b- ended at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are now rallying in wave -c-, which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, before it ends.  

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct420oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was lower this last week reaching a low of 36.63, closing at 37.05.                                                                                      

 

Wave (i) is now complete at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We should expect a least a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave (ii). We probably completed wave $a$ at the 36.13 low and we then rallying in wave $b$.

 

After wave $b$ ends we should see another drop in wave $c$ to complete the 3 wave correction.

 

The other option is that we are still working on our wave $a$ drop.  

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct420su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 11.11, closing at 12.01.

 

Suncor may have made multidecade low in wave B at the 9.61 low, and if that is the case we are now rallying in initial stages of a multiple year wave C.

 

In the short term we completed wave (i) at the 19.16 and continue to falling wave (ii), although we have now traded below our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level which is 12.20.

 

This may be suggesting that Suncor is now heading back to the 9.61 low again. We must rally higher next week.  

 

For the time being we will assume that we are very close to the end of wave (ii) and the start of our wave (iii) rally. After wave (ii) ends we will provide our updated projection for the end of wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                             

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct420sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching a high of 3397.18, closing at 3348.92.  

 

We believe we are rallying in an incomplete wave -iii- of (iii) that has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .iii. at the 3588.11 high and we are now correcting in wave .iv., although the drop is has been pretty deep, as we are close to overlapping with the wave .i. high of 3153.55.

 

Should this occur, our current short-term count would be eliminated.

 

Wave .iv. must continue to rally higher for our current count to remain valid. After wave .iv. ends we expect a sharp wave .v. rally this should reach our 3710.44 projection to complete all of -iii-.  

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct420usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 93.57, closing at 93.91.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.

 

Within wave -iii-, it looks like all of wave *iii* ended at the 91.75 low and we are now rallying in wave *iv* which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

The current rally has now reached our retracement zone so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iv* and the start of another drop in wave *v*.

 

Wave *iv* may now be complete at the 94.80 high.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct420cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 717.92, closing at 708.60.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-of .i., and within wave -iii- we are nearing completion of a complex wave (iv) correction, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 684.48;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 636.63.

 

The current drop has now entered this retracement so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave (iv) at the 665.61 low and the start of another ally in wave (v).

 

Our next projection for the completion for all of wave (v) and all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.  

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct420gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 39.94, closing at 38.97.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 37.08 low, and that our expected wave ^v^ rally is now underway.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ^iv^ are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

Our initial target for our ongoing wave 3 rally is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Next significant resistance at the 51.67 level.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks.