sep 16 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1620cdnx.png

 

The CDNX moved sideways in yesterday’s trading session, closing at 741.91.

 

Our preferred count continues to assume that all of wave .i ended at the 761.82 high. If that is the case we should expect a more sizable correction in wave .ii., which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave .i. rally.

 

We will provide those retracement levels when we believe that all of wave .i. is complete.

 

We still have the concern that our current count is predicting an upcoming much larger correction then our current counts in gold, silver and the GDX are. We have now shown our alternate count on the Daily CDNX Chart and in this count we only completed wave (iii) of -iii- at the 761.84 high. If we are following this count then we now think that wave (iv) is becoming a bullish triangle, which may now be complete at the 731.06 low.

 

After this bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we should expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) of -iii-, which has a projected next endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

For the time being we will stay with our current count, but suspect we will be moving to our alternate count soon..

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold.   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep16gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1620gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 43.60, closing at 42.79.

 

We continue to correct in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

Our bullish wave ^iv^ triangle continues to develop with all of wave -c- now complete at the 39.29 low, and now likely all of wave -d- at the 42.89 high. If that is the case we are now dropping in wave -e-. After wave -e- ends all of our bullish triangle will be complete and the next big move in this market will be sharp thrust higher in wave ^v^. Wave -e- could be complete at the 40.91 low also. 

 

It could also be possible that our current triangle is expanding and extending, which would mean that wave -d- is still underway. Only a break now of the wave -b- high at 44.09 would suggest that all of our wave ^iv^ bullish could be complete at the 40.91 low.

 

We have shown this extending wave -d- alternate count on the 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

Our only concern is that this correction did not reach our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we cannot rule the possible that this triangle formation will extend and expand further or wave ^iv^ could become much more complex than just a simple bullish triangle. As we have said before, however, retracements levels are not part of EWaves theory, so markets do not need to reach their retracement levels, as long as the Ewave patterns are complete.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1620gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 1956.00. In the overnight session as we have moved higher reaching a high of 1977.70.

 

Note that our Daily Gold Chart does not show yesterday’s trading range.  

 

Wave ^iv^ continues to develop with the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

Our wave ^iv^ bullish triangle formation continues to develop. We are certain that at least all of wave $a$ of that bullish wave ^iv^ triangle is complete at the 1874.20 low. What we do not know is whether we are still working on a longer term triangle formation in which case we are still working on wave $b$, or whether this triangle formation is almost complete, perhaps at the 1911.70 low.

 

For the condensed triangle to remain valid we cannot trade below 1908.50. As you know triangles like to extend and expand. With the bullish triangle in the GDX almost complete it will be interesting to see who gold trades in the day or so. Perhaps wave ^iv^ is complete at the 1911.70 low.

 

In either case once this bullish triangle ends gold is going to thrust sharply higher in wave ^v^. Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^v^ and all of  wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1620si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 27.21.

 

Since that low was made we have moved higher to currently be trading at the 27.51 level.

 

Note that our Daily Gold Chart does not show yesterday’s trading range.  

 

Wave -iv- continues to develop and has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 26.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

Silver and the GDX appear to have the best defined bullish triangle formations so far when compared to gold. Within this wave -iv- bullish triangle, wave *a* ended at the 23.58 low and likely all of wave *b* at the 29.23 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave *c*, which could be complete at the 25.99 low. After wave *c* ends we expect another rally in wave *d*, which might be now underway.

 

Silver seems to be following the longer term bullish triangle pattern, where gold may not. It would be very unlikely for the gold bullish triangle to be complete without the silver one…so we continue to believe both of these bullish triangles are still under development, with many weeks to go before their completion, but we have been surprised before!

 

Trading Recommendation: Long at 14.85, and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1620bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.669{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1620spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1620sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3419.48. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 17 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed wave .iii. of -iii- of  (iii) at the 3568.88 high and we are now falling in wave .iv., which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3434.56;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3351.46.

 

We have now reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, and now need to be guard for the completion of wave .iv. and the start of another rally in wave .v.. On the 120 Min SP500 Chart we appear to have a completed 3 wave drop in place from 3568.88 to the current low of 3310.47. Wave .iv. could still become more complex and perhaps even a bullish triangle.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.                                                                                          

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1620usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 92.82 level.

 

We continue to fall in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do lower projections also.

 

We continue to rally in wave *iv*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

Although we are still a bit short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iv* at the 93.64 high. It could also be possible that wave *iv* is also going to become a bearish triangle. On the Intraday Chart we appear to have a 3 wave rally in place from 91.74 to the current high of 93.64.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1620oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 39.41.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave (i) ended at the 21.73 high and we are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 15.67;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 14.24.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (ii), at the 13.34 low and the start of a wave (iii) rally. We will provide our updated wave (iii) projection after we believe that all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew