sep 18 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 737.25, closing at 743.22.

 

We have now adopted our alternate count to preferred which is that we are still working on wave -iii- of .i. and within wave -iii-, we should be getting close to finishing a bullish wave (iv) triangle. Wave (iv) could be complete at the 731.08 low.

 

After wave (iv) end we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to complete all of wave -iii-. Wave -iii- has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold.   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 41.37, closing at 42.10.

 

We continue to correct in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

Our bullish wave ^iv^ triangle continues to expand and extend with all of wave -d- likely ending at the 43.60 high and perhaps all of wave -e- at the 41.37 high. If that is the case then we should be getting ready for the completion of our wave ^iv^ bullish triangle and the start of a sharp thrust higher in wave ^v^.

 

Only a break now of the wave -b- high at 44.09 would suggest that all of our wave ^iv^ bullish could be complete at the 41.37 low. Of course this triangle could continue to expand and extend again.  

 

We continue to have a concern that this correction did not reach our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we cannot rule the possibility that wave ^iv^ could become much more complex than just a simple bullish triangle. As we have said before, however, retracements levels are not part of EWaves theory, so markets do not need to reach their retracement levels, as long as the Ewave patterns are complete, which in this case the bullish triangle is.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 1938.90.

 

In the overnight session as we have moved higher reaching a high of 1964.10.

Note that our Daily Gold Chart does not show the correct trading ranges for the last 3 sessions.  

 

Wave ^iv^ continues to develop with the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

We have adopted our condensed wave ^iv^ bullish triangle formation, which is likely now working on wave $e$ of that pattern ,although it could be complete at the 1938.90 low. After our wave (iv) bullish triangle ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave ^v^. This thrust higher will complete all of wave *iii*, which currently has an projected endpoint of:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Of course, we cannot rue the possibility that this wave ^iv^ bullish triangle will expand and extend.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 26.44.

 

After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 27.58.

 

Note that our Daily Silver Chart does not show the correct trading ranges over the last 3 sessions.   

 

Wave -iv- continues to develop and has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 26.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

Within our current wave -iv- bullish triangle, we currently have the following formation:

 

*a* = 23.58;

*b* = 29.23;

*c* = 25.99;

*d* = 27.86;

*e* = 26.44, if complete to complete all of our bullish wave -iv- triangle.

 

Triangles expand and extend, but for the time being we have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed bullish wave -iv- triangle at the 26.44 low. Wave *e* can drop as low as 25.99 before this bullish triangle is eliminated and starts to expand and extend.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long at 14.85, and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.669{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3328.82. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are marginally higher by about 1 point.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed wave .iii. of -iii- of  (iii) at the 3568.88 high and we are now falling in wave .iv., which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3434.56;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3351.46.

 

We have now reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, and now need to be guard for the completion of wave .iv. and the start of another rally in wave .v.. On the 120 Min SP500 Chart we appear to have a completed 3 wave drop in place from 3568.88 to the current low of 3310.47. Wave .iv. could still become more complex and perhaps even a bullish triangle.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.                                                                                          

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 92.78.

 

We continue to fall in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do lower projections also.

 

We continue to rally in wave *iv*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

Although we are still a bit short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iv* at the 93.63 high.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep1820oil.png   

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 41.49.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave (i) ended at the 21.73 high and we are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 15.67;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 14.24.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (ii), at the 13.12 low and the start of a wave (iii) rally. We will provide our updated wave (iii) projection after we believe that all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew