SEP 20 WEEKEND POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2020gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week, reaching a high of 1983.30, closing at 1962.10.

 

The high/low ranges shown on our Weekly Gold Chart are not correct.

                                                                          

Wave ^iv^ continues to develop with the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

Our wave ^iv^ bullish triangle formation is complete at the 1938.20 low. If our assumption is correct, then the next big move in gold will a very sharp thrust higher in wave ^v^.  

 

This next rally in gold will complete all of wave *iii*, which that following initial projected endpoint:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.

 

We still cannot rule the possibility that our wave ^iv^ is going to expand and extend.

 

After wave *iii* ends we expect a wave *iv* correction that will retrace the entire wave *iii* rally.

 

If wave *iii* ends around the 2300.00 high then the expected correction range for wave *iv* would be between $200 to $325… as gold moves higher the absolute correction values will be get bigger although the percentages of our retracements remain the same.                 

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2020si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was marginally higher this past week, reaching a high of 27.86, and closing at 27.13.  

 

The high/low ranges shown on our Weekly Silver Chart are not correct.

                                                                  ,

Wave -iv- continues to develop with following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 29.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

We are now working on the assumption that our wave -iv- bullish triangle is complete 26.41 low. If that is the case then we should expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave -v- to complete all of wave (i).

 

Of course our current wave -iv- triangle could still expand and extend.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield moved sideways this this past week, closing at 0.694{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

With our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We now think that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex and believe that a rally back to the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high should be expected before all of wave ^ii^ ends.

 

Within wave ^ii^, wave -b- ended at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are now rallying in wave -c-, which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, before it ends.  

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2020oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this last week reaching a high of 41.32, closing at 41.32.                

 

Wave (i) is now complete at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We should expect a least a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave (ii). We probably completed wave $a$ at the 36.13 low and we then rallying in wave $b$. After wave $b$ ends we should see another drop in wave $c$ to complete the 3 wave correction. The other option is that we are still working on our wave $a$ drop.  

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2020su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 13.13, closing at 13.34.

 

Suncor made a multidecade low in wave B at the 9.61 low. We are now rallying in initial stages of a multiple year wave C.

 

In the short term we completed wave (i) at the 19.16 and are or most of wave (ii) at the 13.13 low. We expect our wave (iii) rally will be starting very soon.

 

After wave (ii) ends we will provide our updated projection for the end of wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                              

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2020sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower this past week, reaching a low of 3292.40, and closing at 3319.47.  

 

We believe that all of wave -ii- of (iii) ended at the 2965.55 low and we are now rallying in wave -iii- of (iii) that has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .iii. at the 3588.11 high and we are now correcting in wave .iv., which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3434.56;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3351.24.

 

We have now dropped below our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we need to be guard for the completion of wave .iv. and start of our wave .v. rally.  

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We exited our short trade and are now flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2020usd.png   

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 92.77, closing at 92.95.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.

 

Within wave -iii-, it looks like all of wave *iii* ended at the 91.75 low and we are now rallying in wave *iv* which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

The current rally is still a bit short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we expect further gains within wave *iv* before it ends, although it could be complete at the 93.63 high.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2020cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 748.54, closing at 745.37.

 

We adopted our alternate count this week, that is suggesting that we are still working on wave -iii-of .i., and within wave -iii- we are nearing completion of our bullish wave (iv) triangle.

 

It could be complete at the 731.08 low. If that is the case we should expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), to complete all of wave -iii-.

 

Our next projection for the completion for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.  

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2020gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week, reaching a high of 43.60, but closing only marginally higher at 41.36.

 

Our wave ^iv^ bullish triangle could be complete at the 41.34 low. If that is the case we should expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave ^v^.

 

Of course this wave ^iv^ triangle could also expand and extend.  

 

Our initial target for our ongoing wave 3 rally is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Next significant resistance at the 51.67 level.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew