sep 23 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320cdnx.png  

The CDNX was lower again in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 713.11, closing at 714.70.

 

Our preferred count is that we are still working on wave -iii- of .i. and within wave -iii-, although it looks like our wave (iv) bullish triangle is now extending and expanding, as shown on our Daily CDNX Chart.

 

For our current wave (iv) bullish triangle to remain valid we cannot trade below the wave $a$ low of 709.39.

 

We suspect that wave (iv) is likely not a bullish triangle and is going to become something more complex. We should know the outcome of this bullish triangle after today’s trading.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to complete all of wave -iii-. Wave -iii- has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in yesterday’s trading session, closing at 40.02.

 

We continue to correct in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

For our current bullish wave ^iv^ triangle to remain valid, wave -e- cannot trade below to wave -c low of 39.29. Our triangle formation will be eliminated completely if we trade below the wave -a- low of 38.88.

 

The next day or so of trading should determine the outcome of our current bullish triangle formation. If our current wave ^iv^ triangle is now complete at the 39.37 low then we should expect this market to start to thrust higher in wave ^v^.   

 

For many weeks now we have been saying this: “We continue to have a concern that this correction did not reach our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we cannot rule the possibility that wave ^iv^ could become much more complex than just a simple bullish triangle. As we have said before, however, retracements levels are not part of EWaves theory, so markets do not need to reach their retracement levels, as long as the Ewave patterns are complete, which in this case the bullish triangle is.” It might now be possible that wave ^iv^ is going to become much more complex then just a pure bullish triangle formation.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1876.40.  

 

Wave ^iv^ continues to develop with the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

We have now eliminated our pure bullish triangle formation for wave -iv- as shown in our Daily Gold Chart. There is a triangle in the formation, but it is bearish one. In any event wave ^iv^ should be getting close to completion as we are now dropping in wave $c $ of ^iv^, which has a minimum target of 1874.20, which is the wave $a$ low.

 

After wave $c$ and all of wave ^iv^ end we expect gold to start rallying again in wave ^v^. We are also trading near of 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ^iv^, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave ^iv^ after it hits the 1874.00 level.

 

Wave ^v^ and all of wave *iii* have a current projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We will be adding to our long gold at 1874.00!!

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add at 1874.00!

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Adding at 1874.00!!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 23.22.  

 

Wave -iv- continues to develop and has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 26.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

We also eliminated our wave -iv- bullish triangle in silver. Like gold there is a triangle within wave -iv- but it is bearish one, as shown in the Daily Silver Chart.

 

In the case of silver we are now falling in wave *c* of -iv- and in the overnight session we have reached our minimum target for its completion which is the wave *a* low of 23.58. We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave -iv- and the start of our wave -v- rally. We are also trading just below of 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level.

 

We have added to our long positions.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long at 14.85, and using a put as a stop. Add to long positions.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop. Adding to long positions now!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.679{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3320.33. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are higher by about 9 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed wave .iii. of -iii- of  (iii) at the 3568.88 high and we are now falling in wave .iv., although this retracement has now exceeded 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} which is pretty deep for a wave .iv. correction.

 

We cannot drop below the wave .i. high of 3153.55 for our current analysis to remain valid, so we need to turn up very soon. Wave .iv. could still become more complex and perhaps even a bullish triangle.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.                                                                                          

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 94.30.

 

We continue to fall in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

We continue to rally in wave *iv*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

We have entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iv* and the start of another drop in wave *v* of -iii-.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2320oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 39.98 level.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave (i) ended at the 21.73 high and we are now falling in wave (ii) which has now exceeded for 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Our last retracement level for wave (ii) is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 12.20.

 

We do not want to drop much below that level, otherwise we think Suncor will be heading back to the 9.61 low.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew