sep 24 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420cdnx.png  

 

The CDNX was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 675.61, closing at 677.04.

 

In the longer term we continue to work on wave -iii- of .i. and within wave -iii-, we are working on wave (iv). As we suggested in yesterday’s post it looked like our wave (iv) bullish triangle was going to be eliminated and it was. Nonetheless we are still working on wave (iv), as it has just taken on a different corrective pattern, that includes a bearish triangle as opposed to just being a pure bullish triangle, as shown in our Daily CDNX Chart. Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv) are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 684.48;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 636.63

 

We have now entered our retracement zone so we now need to be on guard for the completion of wave (iv) and the start of another ally in wave (v). Our projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is: Wave -iii- has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold.   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 37.35, closing at 37.63.

 

We continue to correct in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

Our bullish triangle was eliminated in yesterday’s trading session, and wave ^iv^ looks to have become a 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

One benefit of yesterday’s drop… was our concern about how shallow this wave ^iv^ correction had become with the bullish triangle option.

 

We did mention that fact for many days within this post, but the good news is that concern has now been eliminated as we have now entered our above noted retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave ^iv^ and the start of another sharp rally in wave ^v^.   

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1852.00.  

 

Wave ^iv^ continues to develop with the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

We have now eliminated our pure bullish triangle formation for wave -iv- as shown in our Daily Gold Chart.

 

There is a triangle in the formation, but it is a bearish one.

 

In any event wave ^iv^ should be getting close to completion as we are now dropping in wave $c $ of ^iv^, which has now reached our minimum target of 1874.20, which is the wave $a$ low.

 

After wave $c$ and all of wave ^iv^ ends we expect gold to start rallying again in wave ^v^. We are also trading just below our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ^iv^, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave ^iv^, which it could be at the 1852.00 low.

 

Wave ^v^ and all of wave *iii* have a current projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We wadded to our long golds at 1874.00!

 

Trading Recommendation: Go Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Added at 1874.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 21.81.  

 

We are having some doubts as to whether the current correction is wave -iv- of (i), due to the depth of the retracement, so we are now starting to think that we are still rallying in wave -iii- and that within wave -iii- we completed wave *i* at the 29.91 the current drop is wave *ii*.

 

If that is the case then our retracement levels for wave *ii* would be:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 22.24;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.42.

 

For the time being we will stick with our current analysis and suspect that all or most of this deep wave -iv- correction is complete or almost complete at the 21.81 low.

 

If that is the case then we should soon start to rally higher in wave -v- of (i).

 

This alternate count might also apply to the gold market. We will provide an update on that possible very bullish opportunity in the days ahead.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.669{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3232.57. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are lower by about 13 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed wave .iii. of -iii- of  (iii) at the 3568.88 high and we are now falling in wave .iv., although this retracement has now exceeded 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} which is pretty deep for a wave .iv. correction.

 

We cannot drop below the wave .i. high of 3153.55 for our current analysis to remain valid, so we need to turn up very soon.

 

Wave .iv. could still become more complex and perhaps even a bullish triangle.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.                                                                                          

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 94.62.

 

We continue to fall in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

We continue to rally in wave *iv*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

We have entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iv* and the start of another drop in wave *v* of -iii-.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2420oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 39.57 level.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave (i) ended at the 21.73 high and we are now falling in wave (ii) which has now exceeded for 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Our last retracement level for wave (ii) is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 12.20.

 

We do not want to drop much below that level, otherwise we think Suncor will be heading back to the 9.61 low.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

c

 

--

thanks
st