sep 25 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2520cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 665.41, but we closed higher at 686.31.

 

In the longer term we continue to work on wave -iii- of .i.. We are still working on wave (iv), as it has just taken on a different corrective pattern that includes a bearish triangle as opposed to just being a pure bullish triangle, as shown in our Daily CDNX Chart.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv) are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 684.48;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 636.63

 

We have now entered our retracement zone so we now need to be on guard for the completion of wave (iv) and the start of another rally in wave (v) of -iii-.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2520gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2520gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 37.08, although we closed higher at 38.69!

 

We continue to correct in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

Wave ^iv^ looks to have become a 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

One benefit of this week’s big drop was our concern about how shallow this wave ^iv^ correction had become with the pure bullish triangle option.

 

We did mention that fact for many days within this post, but that concern has now been eliminated as we have now entered our above noted retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave ^iv^ and the start of another sharp rally in wave ^v^.

 

A break and close above the wave -a- low of 38.88 would be a first good sign that wave ^iv^ may be complete at the 37.08 low.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2520gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1880.90.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower, reaching a low of 1855.70.  

 

Wave ^iv^ continues to develop although we have now even dropped below our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}= 1874.80.

 

The drop from the 2077.90 high to the current low of 1851.00 is clearly a corrective pattern, but it might not be a wave ^iv^, due to the depth of the retracement. It looks more like a wave $ii$.

 

We have shown a possible very bullish alternate count for gold that is suggesting that we are still rallying in a subdividing wave ^iii^ where only wave $i$ ended at the 2077.90 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1826.

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.70.

 

For the time being will stay with our current count that is suggesting that wave ^iv^ should be ending very soon, if it has not already at the 1852.00 low. After wave $c$ and all of wave ^iv^ ends we expect gold to start rallying again in wave ^v^.

 

Should gold continue to drop then we will likely move to our alternate count.

 

Wave ^v^ and all of wave *iii* have a current projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewse2p2520si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 23.44. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 22.53.  

 

We are having some doubts as to whether the current correction is wave -iv- of (i), due to the depth of the retracement.

 

We are starting to think that we are still rallying in wave -iii- and that within wave -iii- we completed wave *i* at the 29.91,and perhaps all of wave *ii* at the 21.51 low. If that is the case then our retracement levels for wave *ii* would be:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 22.24;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.42.

 

We have now entered the retracement zone!

 

For the time being we will stick with our current analysis and suspect that all or most of this deep wave -iv- correction is complete or almost complete at the 21.81 low.

 

If that is the case then we should soon start to rally higher in wave -v- of (i).

 

We did present a similar case for gold in the above Gold Section, although the drop in gold is still a bit above its 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2520bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.659{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2520spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2520sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3209.45. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are again lower, by about 12 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed wave .iii. of -iii- of  (iii) at the 3568.88 high and we are now falling in wave .iv., although this retracement has now exceeded 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} which is pretty deep for a wave .iv. correction.

 

We cannot drop below the wave .i. high of 3153.55 for our current analysis to remain valid, so we need to turn up very soon.

 

Wave .iv. could still become more complex and perhaps even a bullish triangle.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.                                                       

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2520usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 94.67.

 

We continue to fall in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

We continue to rally in wave *iv*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

We have entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iv* and the start of another drop in wave *v* of -iii-.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2520oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 39.95 level.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave (i) ended at the 21.73 high and we are now falling in wave (ii) which has now exceeded for 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Our last retracement level for wave (ii) is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 12.20.

 

We do not want to drop much below that level, otherwise we think Suncor will be heading back to the 9.61 low.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                       

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew