sep 27 weekly charts post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2720gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was sharply lower this past week, reaching a low of 1851.00, and closing at 1866.30.

                                                                          

As we mentioned in this week’s daily posts, the depth of this wave ^iv^ correction has now exceeded our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement, with the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level being:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1827.00.

 

For the time being we will assume that we are still working on a wave ^iv^ correction, although further price dip next week below the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level would suggest that this drop is likely part of an extending wave ^iii^ rally… which would be a very bullish sign!

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 1851.00 low and that the next big move in gold will be a sharp rally higher in wave ^v^.  

 

This next rally in gold will complete all of wave *iii*, which has this initial projected endpoint:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.           

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2720si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 21.51, and closed at 23.09.

                                                                  ,

The depth of the current wave -iv- correction is greater in silver than it is in gold, which makes it unlikely that this current drop is wave -iv-.

 

It is looking more like a wave ii correction.

 

If we assume for moment that the rally from 11.64 to 29.91 was all of wave i and we are now falling in wave ii, then our retracement levels for wave ii would be:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62

  

For the time being we will assume that the current drop is all of wave -iv-, but we getting a bit skeptical of that assumption.  

 

Should silver continue to drop next week, we will likely adopt this count as our preferred.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield moved sideways this this past week, closing at 0.659{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will projects negative rates for this market.

 

With our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We now think that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex and believe that a rally back to the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high should be expected before all of wave ^ii^ ends.

 

Within wave ^ii^, wave -b- ended at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are now rallying in wave -c-, which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, before it ends.  

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2720oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was lower this last week reaching a low of 38.80, closing at 40.25.                                                                                      

 

Wave (i) is now complete at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We should expect a least a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave (ii).

 

We probably completed wave $a$ at the 36.13 low and we then rallying in wave $b$.

 

After wave $b$ ends we should see another drop in wave $c$ to complete the 3 wave correction. The other option is that we are still working on our wave $a$ drop.  

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2720su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 12.20, closing at 12.43.

 

Suncor made a multidecade low in wave B at the 9.61 low.

 

We are now in the initial stages of a multiple year wave C.

 

In the short term, we completed wave (i) at the 19.16 and continue to falling wave (ii), although we have now reached our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level which is 12.20.

 

Further weakness from here could suggest that Suncor is heading back to the 9.61 low.

 

For the time being we will assume that we are very close to the end of wave (ii) and the start of our wave (iii) rally.

 

After wave (ii) ends we will provide our updated projection for the end of wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2720sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower this past week reaching a low of 3209.45, closing at 3298.46.  

 

We appear to be in an incomplete wave -iii- of (iii) that has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .iii. at the 3588.11 high and we are now correcting in wave .iv., although the drop is getting pretty deep, as we are close to overlapping with the wave .i. high of 3153.55.

 

Should this occur, our current short-term count would be eliminated.

 

Wave .iv. must end pretty soon for our current count to remain valid. After wave .iv. ends we expect a sharp wave .v. rally this should reach our 3710.44 projection to complete all of -iii-.  

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

For subs looking at the “final” top for the SP500, one possible number is the 5500 area. Regardless, the current counts suggest the market has a lot more upside before it finally all turns into ashes.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2720usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was sharply higher this past week reaching 94.29, and closing at 94.68.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.

 

Within wave -iii-, it looks like all of wave *iii* ended at the 91.75 low and we are now rallying in wave *iv*, which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

The current rally has now reached our retracement zone so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iv* and the start of another drop in wave *v*.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2720cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower this past week, reaching a low of 665.41, and closing at 695.26.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-of .i., and within wave -iii- we are nearing completion of a complex wave (iv) correction, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 684.48;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 636.63.

 

The current drop has now entered this retracement so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave (iv) and the start of another ally in wave (v).

 

Our next projection for the completion for all of wave (v) and all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.  

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long-term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep2720gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower this past week, reaching a low of 37.08, closing at 38.42.

 

Our wave ^iv^ bullish triangle was eliminated this past week, with the sharp drop in the GDX.

 

The good news is that our concern about the shallowness of the wave ^iv^ correction was also eliminated with the drop!

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ^iv^ are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

WE are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 37.08 low, and that our expected wave ^v^ rally is about to begin.   

 

Our initial target for our ongoing wave 3 rally is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Our next significant resistance is at the 51.67 level.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew