SEP 28 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 881.35, closing at 880.41!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before.

 

It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which however may now be complete at the 847.92 low. A break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 30.54, but we closed unchanged at 29.68.

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We have now reached our 50% retracement level, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally. We are now waiting for confirmation of the end of wave *ii*, although we expect to be lower again today at least at the open.

 

We have updated our count for all of *ii* as it now looks like we are getting close to completing all of our second wave ^c^ which looks to be an ending diagonal triangle. Only a break and close above our upper blue down trendline will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 29.68 low.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 1731.60.

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has now reached our 61.8% level at the 1731.60 low. Our retracement levels for all of wave $b$ are:

 

50% = 1756.50;

61.8% = 1737.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. We will update our $c$ =$a$ projection when wave $b$ ends:

 

$c$ = $a$ = ????.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1731.60. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is nearing completion and that the next rally in gold will be substantial in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 22.86. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 22.15.

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are still working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is now expanding and extending, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Within the wave (iv) bullish triangle it now looks like wave -c- is still underway.

 

For this triangle option to remain valid, wave -c- cannot trade below the wave -a- low of 21.81. After wave -c- ends we still expect a rally in wave -d- that can go as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35. As a minimum wave -d- should reach our upper red trendline which currently sits at the 27.50 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.551%.

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.450%;

61.8% = 1.520%

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level for all of wave *b*, so we need to be on guard for its completion very soon.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821sp120.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 moved lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4436.19. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 33 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is much too early to determine what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will take.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 93.71!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again as it look like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway. For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. After wave $c$ ends we still expect a drop in wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

The head and shoulder top formation has been eliminated on the Daily USDX Chart.

 

We have raised our stop to 94.81.

                                                                                                             

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2821usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 76.67!

 

We continue to work on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Our wave (iv) bullish triangle may now be complete at the 69.39 low. A trade above the 76.98 high will confirm that. If that is the case then we are now thrusting sharply higher in wave (v) of i. The thrust could run to the $90 area, but let’s get through 76.98 first.

                                                                                                      

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 16.91, which is now within our retracement zone. We need to now be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew