sep 3 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ew2020sep3cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 745.89, closing at 749.64.

 

Our preferred count continues to assume that all of wave .i ended at the 761.82 high. If that is the case we should expect a more sizable correction in wave .ii., which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave .i. rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we believe that all of wave .i. is complete.

 

We still have the concern that our current count is predicting an upcoming much larger correction then our current counts in gold, silver and the GDX are. In fact as you will see below those corrections could already be complete.

 

We have now shown our alternate count on the Daily CDNX Chart and in this count we only completed wave (iii) of -iii- at the 755.53 high and likely all of wave (iv) of -iii- at the 709.09 low. If that is case we are now starting to rallying gain in wave (v) of -iii-. Our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.26-i-=870.15.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

For the time being we will stay with our current count, but suspect we will be moving to our alternate count in the next 24 to 48 hours. This market continues to be very hot and bullish.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold.   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep320gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep320gdxd.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 40.41, but we closed marginally higher at 41.76.

 

We continue to correct in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

We have shown a possible 3 wave corrective pattern on our 60 Min GDX Charts, with all of wave -a- ending at the 38.88 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave -b-, which will then be followed by another drop in wave -c- to complete all of wave -iv-. Wave -c- should drop at least back to the wave -a- low.

 

On our Daily GDX Chart we have shown the alternate corrective pattern for wave -iv- which could be a bullish triangle with all of the minimum conditions for its completion now being in place at the 40.41 low.

 

If this bullish triangle is complete or almost complete then the next big move in the GDX will be a sharp thrust higher in wave ^v^. Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend. We will likely be adopting the bullish triangle formation as our preferred count very soon.

 

Although we are still a little short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, there is an outside chance that all of wave -iv- could be complete at the 38.88 low also, as the gold and silver market are very volatile at the moment.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep320gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s’ s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1932.40.  

 

Wave ^iv^ continues to develop with the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

We have now reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we cannot rule the possibly that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 1874.20 low. If that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave ^v^.

 

The other option is that wave ^iv^ is going to become a bullish triangle, with the lowest point within that formation being the 1874.20 low. This is now our alternate count and is shown graphically on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

As you know, triangles like to extend and expand, and our chart is graphically a picture of just that.

 

On the Intraday Chart our condensed triangle is expanding and extending, as we could be working on the final leg of that formation. The current low of 1932.40 has satisfied the minimum requirements for our condensed bullish triangle to be complete.

 

If that is the case we should expect a sharp thrust higher in wave ^v^. For the current triangle formation to remain valid we cannot trade below the 1908.50. We think that our wave ^iv^ triangle still needs more time to develop, but from an EWaves point of view it could already be complete. We have shown this condensed bullish wave ^iv^ triangle with dashed boundary lines on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^v^ and all of  wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep320si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 26.91.

 

Wave -iv- continues to develop and has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 26.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

We have now reached the 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we cannot rule the possibility that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 23.58 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally higher in wave -v-.

 

The other option is that wave -iv- is going to become a bullish triangle of which we have reached the lowest point of that formation at the 23.58 low, which we have shown graphically on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Like gold it could also be possible that our wave -iv- bullish triangle is complete at the 26.57 low, as we have shown on the Daily Silver Chart. If it is then silver is starting to thrust sharply higher in wave ^v^.

 

We still think that our wave -iv- triangle is still developing but it does not need to from an EWaves point of view, and in this case all of wave *b* could be complete at the 29.23 high and we are now falling in wave *c*.  

 

It would be very unlikely for the gold bullish triangle to be complete without the silver one…so we continue to believe both of these bullish triangles are still under development, with many weeks to go before their completion, but we have been surprised before!

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep320bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 0.643{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we moved sideways to currently be trading at the 0.653{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep320spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep320sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time new high at 3588.11. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 14 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), we continues to rally in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

We will need to work on the internal wave count within wave -iii-, but we still expect higher prices ahead before it ends.                                                                                              

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep320usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 93.08.

 

We continue to fall in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do lower projections also.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iii* is complete at the 91.72 low and that we are now rallying in wave *iv*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

Ii is too early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave *iv* is going to take.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep320oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 40.23.

 

For the time being we are still assuming that all of wave (i) ended at the 42.51 high. If that is the case then we are now falling in the initial stages of wave (ii), which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the enter wave (i) rally.

 

We are still not totally convinced of our current count, so we will give this market more time, before we provide our retracement levels for our wave (ii) correction.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we likely completed wave (i) of i at 19.16 and likely all of wave (ii) at the 13.98 low, although we cannot now rule the possibility that it is becoming an a irregular type correction, and in this case we are no heading back to at least the 13.98 low to complete all of wave (ii).  

 

If wave (ii) is complete the we should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projection for its completion:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 29.43.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                           

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew