SEP 30 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep3021cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 853.40, closing at 856.27!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before. It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway. Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep3021gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep3021gdxd.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 28.83, closing at 28.91!

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We are no within our retracement zone, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally. We are now waiting for confirmation of the end of wave *ii*, as we are also approaching the lower trendline of our ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Only a break and close above our upper blue down trendline will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.91 low.

 

The GDX had now reached oversold territory on a daily basis, as we think this very long wave *ii* correction is almost complete. Remember that form a Ewave psychologically speaking point of view at end of wave *ii* type corrections, in a bull market like gold is in, the bulls will be in total capitulation mode and we questioning whether gold in this case will every rally again. These lows should be viewed as buying opportunities and it is form the mentality that wave *iii* is going to begin soon.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewse3021gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1721.10. In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching a high of 1734.60, but after that high was made we moved lower again reaching low of 1721.90. We are currently trading at 1727.20!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d. Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has now exceeded our 61.8% level at the 1727.90 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave $b$ is:

 

78.6% = 1710.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. We will update our $c$ =$a$ projection when wave $b$ ends:

 

$c$ = $a$ = ????.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is nearing completion and that the next rally in gold will be substantial in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep3021si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 21.41. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 21.63 level!

 

Our wave (iv) bullish triangle was eliminated in yesterday’s trading as we dropped below the 21.81 level.

 

As you can see in our Daily Silver Chart we have updated out count to now be much more bullish then we had previously thought. It now looks like all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the current length corrective pattern is now an almost complete wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but the good news for the bulls is that once the correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii. Remember the same psychological feeling that we mentioned in gold above also apply to this wave ii pattern.

 

Wave ii looks to have become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

We are not discouraged, however, and will be adding to our silver positions at 20.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add at 20.50, and but puts as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!  Add at 20.50, with a put as the stop.                                                                                                                                           

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep3021bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.536%. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1.538% level%!.

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep3021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep3021sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4355.87. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 15 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is much too early to determine what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will take.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep3021usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 94.52!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again as it look like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway. For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. After wave $c$ ends we still expect a drop in wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

The head and shoulder top formation has been eliminated on the Daily USDX Chart.

 

We have raised our stop to 94.81.

                                                                                                             

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/elwsep3021oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 75.78. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 73.91!

 

We continue to work on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Our wave (iv) bullish triangle may now be complete at the 69.39 low. A trade above the 76.98 high will confirm that. If that is the case then we are now thrusting sharply higher in wave (v) of i. The thrust could run to the $90 area, but let’s get through 76.98 first.

 

We still cannot rule the possibility that all of wave $d$ ended at the 76.76 high and that we are now falling in wave $e$ also. Triangles do like to extend and expand.

                                                                                                      

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 16.91, which is now within our retracement zone. We need to now be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew