SEP 5 WEEKLY POST!

Note: No Weekly Post next weekend as the Captain will be away ohis 30th Weeding Anniversary in the Rocky Mountains.  Gold and silver... another decent week!

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week reaching a high of 1836.90, closing at 1833.70!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in a lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle. Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20. Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Our alternate count is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 24.94, closing at 24.80!  

                                                                  

Within our wave (iv) bullish triangle all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 spike low and we are now rallying in wave -d-. Wave -d- can rally as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35 for this triangle option to remain valid. After wave -d- ends we expect one more drop in wave -e- to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After our bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we still expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has a projected length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a low of 1.270%, although we closed higher at 1.322%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s. This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

The rally from 1.128% to the last week’s high of 1.379% looks to be a 3 wave corrective pattern, which is suggesting that rates will be heading back to at least the 1.128% level, before all of wave (ii) ends. We failed to close above our red downtrend line that is shown on our Daily Chart. 

 

The other option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was higher this past week reaching a high of 70.61, closing at 69.29!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we continue to work on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart. Within that bullish triangle all of a complex wave $c$ looks to be complete at the 61.74 low.

 

If that is the case we are now rallying in wave $d$. Wave $d$ cannot rally above the wave $b$ high of 76.89 for our current triangle formation to remain valid. After wave $d$ ends we expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i. The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our larger wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor moved sideways this past week, although we closed lower at 18.72!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (ii) and the start of a sharp wave (iii) rally. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 17.10 low and if that is the case then we are starting to rally higher in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521sp500.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4545.85, closing at 13.33, closing at 4535.43!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 91.80, closing at 92.03!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle. All of wave $c$ of *iv* ended at the 93.75 high and we should now be falling in wave *d*. Wave *d* cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 923.99, closing at 923.22!

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of our current wave -ii- of .iii. correction is finally complete. We have met all of the minimum requirements for its completion at the 860.31 low.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 33.52, closing at 33.28!

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that our lengthy and complex wave *ii* of -3- correction is finally complete at the 30.68 low. Our only concern is that our minimum target for this low was 30.64, so we will be cautious before we declare all of wave -ii- complete at the 30.68 low.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii*.

 

Gold stocks are now very undervalued when compared to current price of gold, so either gold prices have to now fall sharply or the GDX has to soon start to rally sharply higher, as extremities in markets do not last too long. If you believe in higher gold prices, gold stocks are all on sale at these prices.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching a high of 51056, closing at 50166!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly. On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low. This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

We should now be rallying in wave (b) rally which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50% = 46884;

61.8% = 51126.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone for all of wave (b) so we have to be on guard for its completion and the start of another drop in wave (c) of 2 or B.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks