sep 6 weekly charts post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep620gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially higher this past week, reaching a high of 2001.20, but we closed lower at 1934.30.

                                                                          

Wave ^iii^ is complete at the 2077.90 high and we are now falling in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

We are now working on the assumption that wave ^iv^ is becoming a bullish triangle formation, which should take many more weeks to develop.

 

If our assumption is correct, then we completed wave $a$ at the 1876.50 low and we are now rallying in a complex wave $b$.

 

Wave $b$ could also be complete at the 2024.60 high and it could also trade above the wave ^iii^ high of 2077.90.

 

In our Daily Post we have also shown a more compressed wave ^iv^ bullish triangle which could be complete at the 1922.40 low.

 

If that is correct then gold is getting ready to thrust sharply higher in wave ^v^.

 

After wave ^iv^ ends we expect gold to rally again in wave ^v^ of *iii*

Wave *iii* has an initial protected endpoint of:  

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

After wave *iii* ends we expect a wave *iv* correction that will retrace the entire wave *iii* rally. If wave *iii* ends at 2300.00 high, then the expected correction range for wave *iv* would be between

$200 to $325…

 

As gold moves higher the absolute correction values will be get bigger although the percentages of our retracements remain the same.                 

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep620si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 29.23, although we closed lower at 26.71.   

                                                                  ,

Silver has completed wave -iii- of (i) at the 29.91 high and we are current falling in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 29.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

We are now working on the assumption that wave -iv- is becoming a bullish triangle and if that is the case then we completed wave *a* at the 23.58 low, and likely all of wave *b* at the 29.23 high.

 

WE should now be falling in wave *c*. For our current bullish triangle formation to remain valid we cannot fall below the wave *a* low of 23.58.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long-term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a low of 0.606{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 0.721{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

With our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We now think that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex and believe that a rally back to the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high should be expected before all of wave ^ii^ ends. Within wave ^ii^, wave -b- ended at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are now rallying in wave -c-, which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, before it ends.  

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep620oil.png

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply lower this last week reaching a low of 39.35, closing at 39.77.                          

 

It is now looks like all of wave (i) is now complete at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect lower crude prices next week.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep620su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor moved lower this past week reaching a low of 15.25, closing at 15.52.

 

Suncor made a multidecade low in wave B at the 9.61 low.

 

We are now rallying in initial stages of a multiple year wave C.

 

In the short term we completed wave (i) at the 19.16 and we believe all of wave (ii) at the 13.98 low, although we are now thinking that wave (ii) has become more complex and in that case we will heading back to that low before all of wave (ii) ends.

 

Assuming that wave (ii) is complete at the 13.98 low, then we should be now be rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 29.43.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                               

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep620sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher this past week reaching another all-time new high at 3588.11, but after that high we dropped sharply to reach a low of 3349.64, closing lower at 3426.96.  

 

We now believe that all of wave -ii- of (iii) ended at the 2965.55 low and we are now rallying in wave -iii- of (iii) that has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .iii. at the 3588.11 high and we are now correcting in wave .iv., which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3434.56;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3351.24.

 

We have already reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we need to be guard for the completion of wave .iv. and start of our wave .v. rally, although we think it is going to take longer for wave .iv. to develop.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep620usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 91.75, but we closed higher at 92.71.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.

 

Within wave -iii-, it looks like all of wave *iii* ended at the 91.75 low and we are now rallying in wave *iv* which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

The current rally is still a bit short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement, so we expect further gains with wave *iv* before it ends.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep620cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 759.19, but we closed lower at 733.69.

 

We now has satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave (i) at the 761.84 high.

 

If all of wave (i) is now complete we should now expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

We are also looking at our current count with the idea that perhaps we are still rallying in an ever extending wave -iii- of .i.. We have shown that alternate count on our Daily CNDX Chart.

 

This alternate count puts the CDNX count into the alignment gold, silver and the GDX.

 

The CDNX has rallied significantly more than those other markets in terms of percentage increase, however... for now… we will stay with our current count.  

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep620gdx.png

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 43.13, but we closed lower at 40.86.

 

Our initial target for our ongoing wave 3 rally is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20

 

Wave 3 is subdividing with wave ^iii^ of 3 complete at the 45.78 high. We should now be falling in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

We have now adopted the bullish triangle count for wave ^iv^ and it looks like wave -c- of that formation could now be complete at the 39.47 low.

 

If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave -d-.

 

Note of course that this triangle formation could still expand an extend for some time yet.

 

Next significant resistance at the 51.67 level.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew