SEP 8 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/carnival-cruises-sets-sail-traders-check-out-the-cruise-stocks.html  

The CDNX was initially lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 713.94, but we closed higher at 733.69.

 

Our preferred count continues to assume that all of wave .i ended at the 761.82 high. If that is the case we should expect a more sizable correction in wave .ii., which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave .i. rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we believe that all of wave .i. is complete.

 

We still have the concern that our current count is predicting an upcoming much larger correction then our current counts in gold, silver and the GDX are.

 

We have now shown our alternate count on the Daily CDNX Chart and in this count we only completed wave (iii) of -iii- at the 755.53 high and likely all of wave (iv) of -iii- at the 709.09 low. If that is case we are now starting to rallying gain in wave (v) of -iii-. Wave (iv) could also become bullish triangle now.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i-=870.15.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

For the time being we will stay with our current count, but suspect we will be moving to our alternate count.

 

Trading Recommendation: Go long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep820gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep820gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 39.47, closing 40.86.

 

We continue to correct in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

We have now adopted our alternate count as preferred as shown on the Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts. Our bullish wave ^iv^ triangle is now expanding and extending with likely all of wave -c- now complete at the 39.47 low. If that is the case we are now rallying in wave -d-. Wave -d- cannot rally above the wave -b- high of 44.09 for this triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our only concern is that this correction did not reach our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we cannot rule the possible that this triangle formation will extend and expand further or wave ^iv^ could become much more complex than just a simple bullish triangle.

 

As we have said before, however, retracements levels are not part of EWaves theory, so markets do not need to reach their retracement levels, as long as the Ewave patterns are complete.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewep820gold.png   

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight as we have reached low of 1914.10.  

 

Wave ^iv^ continues to develop with the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

We have adopted the bullish wave ^iv^ triangle option as our preferred count. We are certain that at least all of wave $a$ of that bullish wave ^iv^ triangle is complete at the 1874.20 low.

 

What we do not know is whether we are still working on a longer term triangle formation in which case we are still working on wave $b$, or whether this triangle formation is almost complete, perhaps at the 1914.10 low.

 

For the condensed triangle to remain valid we cannot trade below 1908.50. As you know triangles like to extend and expand. With the bullish triangle in the GDX now expanding and extending it seems likely that the one in gold will also.

 

In either case once this bullish triangle ends gold is going to thrust sharply higher in wave ^v^. Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^v^ and all of  wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep820si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 26.36.

 

Wave -iv- continues to develop and has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 26.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

We have adopted our bullish triangle option as our preferred as shown on the Daily Silver Chart.

 

It appears that within this wave -iv- bullish triangle, wave *a* ended at the 23.58 low and likely all of wave *b* at the 29.23 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave *c*. Once wave *c* ends we expect another rally in wave *d*.

 

The other concern we have is that silver seems to be following the longer term bullish triangle pattern, where gold may not. It would be very unlikely for the gold bullish triangle to be complete without the silver one…

 

So we continue to believe both of these bullish triangles are still under development, with many weeks to go before their completion, but we have been surprised before!

 

Trading Recommendation: Go long, using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep820bond.png   

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 0.721{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 0.684{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep820spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep820sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 3349.53. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 35 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed wave .iii. of -iii- of  (iii) at the 3568.88 high and we are now falling in wave .iv., which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3434.56;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3351.46.

 

We have now reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, but we suspect that wave .iv. is still not complete, as we think it should take more time to develop.

 

After wave .iv. ends we expect another rally in wave .v. to complete all of wave -iii-.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.                                  

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep820usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 93.43.

 

We continue to fall in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do lower projections also.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iii* is complete at the 91.72 low and that we are now rallying in wave *iv*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.83;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 95.12.

 

It is too early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave *iv* is going to take, but we still expect higher prices before all of wave *iv* ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ewsep820oil.png

 

  Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 36.97.

 

It looks like all of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we likely completed wave (i) of i at 19.16 and likely all of wave (ii) at the 13.98 low, although we cannot now rule the possibility that it is becoming an a irregular type correction, and in this case we are now heading back to at least the 13.98 low to complete all of a complex wave (ii) correction.  If wave (ii) is complete the we should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projection for its completion:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 29.43.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                           

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew